By Scott Jackson
06/12/2025
A lot is happening in the Middle East today as the state department have put U.S. diplomats and embassies on alert that they could be evacuated at any moment as the U.S./Iran nuclear talks seem to be stalling after months of meetings.
If these talks fail it’s likely that Israel with or without US backing will launch military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities causing Iran to launch retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, utilizing conventional ballistic missiles, as well as drones. The deadline set by the U.S. for these nuclear talks roughly two months ago was two months. Time seems to be almost up for the question of what’s going to happen with Iran.
We’ve had some indication earlier this week as a load of anti drone missile that were earmarked for a shipment to Ukraine were sent to the Middle East. Some said this was the Trump administration pulling away from Ukriane however it seems more likely that the DoD views these assets as being mission critical right now.
So far only non essential staff have been evacuated however that is subject to change as things progress. When asked about this earlier today why military and government families and non critical staff were being evacuated he said that they would “ have to see, thank you”
Multiple unnamed U.S. officials who spoke to members of the media are saying that they doubt this weekends round of US and Iran talks will even happen. you can find that quote in WP.
The airspace around Iran has been subject to a heavy amount of t of GOs jamming. A thing that can be measured by looking at historical flight data of airplanes that flew close to the areas. This phenomenon is noticed a lot near Israel’s borders who were almost constantly jamming GPS signals during the war in Gaza. This is something we also see originating from Russia’s Kaliningrad however at a greater degree there.
Speaking of air assets. I’m sure it will suprise almost nobody when I say that Iran has seen an uptick in aerial monitoring from the U.S. as of late. Reconnaissance and signals gathering platforms making daily trips around the countries borders.
The next bit we have is an advisory put out by the UKMTO or the UK Maritime Trade Organization.
This UKMTO goes out to mariners operating in the region and warns them away from the Strait of Hormuz due to “increased security tensions in the area that could affect mariners”.
While the U.S. presence in the Middle East isnt what it once was it still has the capability to retaliate if Iran starts launching ballistic missiles. On the 9th satellite flyovers at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean show that the base still holds at least 4 B-52s as well as at least 6 F-15s (along with some transport and refueling aircraft). Beyond that the USS Carl Vinson (CVN- 70) along with its CSG and carrier air wing 2.
I haven’t even mentioned everything. The U.S. still has some several thousand soldiers in the region along with multiple air squadrons spread across Iraq and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the gulf partner states.
Hey guys I just wanted to go a little less formal to say that I don’t know whats going to happen, but whatever it is feels like it’s coming soon. Some signs are there that we are coming to a point where decisions are going to be made regarding all of this we talked about above. My point is tensions for these players are high and when tensions are high things seem to happen. Anyway for now we wait and see.
-Scott
Global Conflict Reporting 
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