Global Conflict Reporting

Tag: geopolitics

  • US THAAD missile supply down 20% globally after Middle East engagement.

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/29/2025

    A recent report released by the DoD has annonced that the U.S. has burned through around 15-20% of its global stockpile of interceptor missiles used in the THAAD system, while shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles, defending Israel from attack. THAAD only had its first combat interception last year but its effectiveness has already been well proven and with the data from its recent interceptions its performance will only improve.

    THAAD, or the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense is a U.S. air defense system that can engage and destroy short-, medium-, and intermediate- range ballistic missiles, inside the earths atmosphere or outside of it.

    The U.S. currently has Seven THAAD batteries. Each are made up of at least six truck-mounted launchers with eight interceptor missiles each. The launcher can be reloaded once every half hour. The system is capable of supporting up to 9 launchers.

    THAAD mounted on a 4 axle heavy expanded mobility tactical truck (HEMTT)

    The battery also consist of a ground based radar. The Army Navy/Transportable Radar Surveillance or AN/TPY-2. The AN/TPY-2 consist of 4 elements: an antenna unit, electronics unit, power and cooling, all on independent trailers. The X-band radar is capable of tracking targets out to between 500 and 1900 miles depending on mode and conditions. The radar is what gives THAAD its impressive accuracy. Note that the launchers can also utilize other radar if problems arise, such as any of the ship based Agis platforms.

    THAAD AN/TPY-2 and supporting systems..

    There is also the THAAD Fire Control and Communications (TFCC) which controls the overall operation of the system and also relays fire control informations to other systems like Patriot and other elements in the joint force. The TFCC includes two main stations: the Tactical Operation Station (TOS) and the Launch Control Station (LCS) . TOS and LCS incorporate wireless datalinks, networking equipment, and fiber optic cable interfaces.

    With near permanent THAAD batteries deployed to South Korea, Israel, and Guam, one can see its importance on some of the most high stress potential future and current conflicts. Finding a solution to a munition shortage problem in this area should become a high priority for the US as well as some of its partners who have bought the system. Defending the airspace during any conflict is paramount and could mean the difference between victory or defeat especially for the U.S. who doctrinally, look to maintain control of the airspace they are operating in.

    With near-permanent US operated THAAD batteries deployed to South Korea, Israel, and Guam, one can see its importance in some of the most high-stress potential future and current conflict zones. Finding a solution to the munition shortage problem in this area should become a high priority for the US and its partners who have purchased the system. Defending airspace during any conflict is paramount and could mean the difference between victory and defeat, especially for the US, which doctrinally aims to maintain control of the airspace it operates in.

    To combat the shortage in the weapon systems munitions Lockheed Martin has invested in streamlining the process for the production of these highly technical missiles, up to 500 missiles a year for the U.S. ,instead of the current number that hovers around 300. South Korea has chosen to invest more in its own domestic systems hoping to be able to reduce the reliance on the system. The UAE will likely be getting a replenishment of their stock from the U.S.’s stockpile. Overall the U.S. is pushing its NATO allies to develop their own domestic systems as to take some of the pressure off of the THAAD system, and create a more multi-layered threat protection. THAAD works best when supported by other counters to different types of air threats. One example of this is the MIM-104 Patriot system.

    Diagram showing a layered air defense plan where each system complements and enhances the other’s abilities.

    THAAD will continue to be an important part of the United States overall missile defense strategy.

  • US strikes on Iran; Operation Midnight Hammer.

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/21/2025

    According to US President Donald Trump, the attack last night at about 2:00 am (local time) on three of Iran’s nuclear sites was a success. Speaking to Fox News an hour or so after the attack Trump said that a total of six of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator- a 30,000 pound, GPS guided, “bunker buster” on Fordow others were used elsewhere. The bombs were dropped by USAF B-2 Spirit stealth bombers into Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. It was later reported that 7 bombers total took part in the strike, as well as a support package provided by CENTCOM.

    The Natanz and Isfahan Nuclear facilities were hit with 30 BGM-109 “Tomahawk” land-attack cruise missiles (TLAM) fired from the USS Georgia (SSGN 729).

    The result, Trump claims, was the complete destruction of all three plants.

    Satellite images from the awesome people over at Planet labs shows us the impact spot for the GBU-57’s.

    Fordow Fuel Enrichment Facility several months ago.
    Fordow image taken today, the morning after the attack 06/22/2025) .

    These next images show the spot a little better. From Maxar.

    This one clearly shows the impact crater where the bomb burrowed its way through the soil and into the mountain. The ridge of the mountain is different in this video showing just how destructive the blast actually was.

    This last image below is from Maxar as well and shows the 6 holes left by the bunker busting behemoths as they slammed through the mountain.

    You can see the entrance holes from six individual bomb in this zoomed in image of the site. The holes are in two groups fairly close together.

    In this image we can see just how accurate a B-2 launched GBU-57 MOP really is. Being GPS guided, they can almost put one in the hole left by one of the others. As a B-2 can carry two of these bombs it would appear that at least three of the stealth bombers took part in this strike. My thinking is that the two made their individual drops and the third one put one more on top of each group. Total it’s being reported that 14 of the bunker busting bombs were used according to Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Cain.

    In the weeks and days leading up to the strikes satellite images show a large number of trucks in site leading analysts to believe that a large portion of the valuable equipment had been moved from Fordow. In the following pictures 16 trucks can be seen with heavy equipment located near the entrance.

    The strikes were proceeded by a reported heavy wave of GPS jamming and other electronic interference. I haven’t heard exactly what support craft took part in this mission. The F-35 is capable of Electronic Warfare as is the EA-18G Growlers flying from the US aircraft carriers in the region. The electronic jamming added to the stealth feature of the bombers and Iran reportedly never got a shot off at them. Another suspected factor that’s come up is that it’s being reported that Israel destroyed the air defense around Fordow, specifically, at the request of the U.S. administration. This is a closer coordination between the two countries militaries than most suspected, given some of the recent comments through the media. Israeli officials had stated just hours before the attack that Israel would not wait for the two week deadline that Trump gave himself to make a decision.

    That decision was apparently made in the very last minutes as the bombers were in the air over Iran, US president Donald Trump have the order to SECDEF Pete Hegseth to bomb the facilities.

    In the aftermath of the strike Iranian officials were livid. Iran’s foreign minister accused Washington of crossing “a very big red line” and that the U.S. would face consequences. US officials, like SECDEF Pete Hegseth messaging on this has remained focused on the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, as they try to separate Americas goals from those of Israel who likely seeks complete regime change.

    “the United States is not at war with Iran….We are at war with its nuclear ambitions,” 

    US Vice President JD Vance.

    Iran responded to the attacks by launching a ballistic missile attack in Tel Aviv several hours later, one of the largest since the start of hostilities.

    Israel today, has continued its strikes on Iran with reports of strikes in Tehran as well as Tabriz.

    B-2 Spirit

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    Thanks for reading. Your support is always appreciated and your shares of my articles and post helps grow this page giving us more resources to continue to out back into it. 
    As GCR continues to grow I’m looking to expand into making a podcast. If you know anybody with knowledge or experiences that are relevant to what we write about here let me know. 
    -Scott

  • B-2s head to Guam amid Middle East tensions

    By. Scott Jackson

    Updated.

    06/21/2025

    As the US president Donald Trump is set to meet with his NSC National Security Council tonight (Saturday) Six US long range strategic stealth bombers, the B-2 spirit are being moved to a U.S. base in the Pacific. At least 6 of them were spotted by flight tracking software along with their refueling planes. They took off from Whiteman AFB in Missouri and refueled soon after leading some to believe that the planes were carrying a considerable amount of weight at takeoff.

    Reuters spoke to several unnamed officials who said that no forward orders beyond Guam had been given yet.

    These bombers were recently positioned at the joint British/US base in the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia. That location is the likely destination if these assets are to be moved closer to Iran. Currently at least two B-52’s are located at Diego Garcia.

    Assets like this are put in place ahead of time, even if they aren’t ultimately utilized to give the President options in case he decides to go forward, joining Israel and carrying out US offensive actions on Iran.

    The B-2 Spirit is a stealth, long-range bomber that can carry an assortment of munitions. For its likely intended purpose in destroying underground nuclear sites in Iran the B-2 is suspected to deploy one or more of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP. The GBU-57 is a 30,000 pound, GPS guided, bunker busting bomb capable of penetrating deep into the earth before exploding. The GBU-57 can penetrate up to 200ft of earth or 59ft of reinforced concrete. No there is some debate on whether or not the bomb could penetrate far enough down to destroy Iran’s site at Fordow.

    A mock-up of the GBU-57, shown in a B-2 Spirit simulator weapons loading training station At Whiteman AFB.

    The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) also known as Shahid Ali Mohammadi Nuclear Facility is a partially underground, uranium enrichment facility that is located twenty miles North of the city of Qom. The base is mostly buried under a mountain making attacking the target difficult, maybe even impossible, even for the always impressive B-2 Spirit. It’s possible that cracking this nut could require the use of something less stealthy and more conventional. Possibly ground forces sent in to plant explosives. Either way the task of destroying the site gets harder every day that Israel (and the U.S.) wait. Iran has a chance to move the valuable scientists and equipment to another base, possibly the nuclear base Israel has an agreement with Russia not to attack because of a reported number of Russian scientists.

    What are your thoughts? How should the Iranian nuclear base be handled?

    Update.

    Instead of being moved to a preposition thr B-2’s bombed three of Irans nuclear sites. Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan were all struck.

    Per. Trump via Truth Social

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  • US Air Force F-22s and F-35s deploying to the Middle East.

    US Air Force F-22s and F-35s deploying to the Middle East.

    Four F-35’s and a tanker spotted over Italy

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/17/2025

    In connection to the sudden large wave of aerial refueling tankers spotted leaving the continental US and heading East over the Atlantic and into Europe, the US has announced it is deploying several fighter squads into the Middle East.

    According to reports the fighters have already left and likely have already arrived.

    Statement released on social media from SECDEF Pete Hegseth
    The tankers as they left the US and headed across the Atlantic.
    Final landing position.

    The tankers were previously spotted on the publicly available ADS-B where their location can be tracked so long as the military pilots leave it on. The capability to turn it off is included for missions of a more secret nature. The fact that the locations are turned on is an indication that US military leadership knows people are watching and is attempting to deter any potential enemy’s (Iran). Around 39 tankers total have left from the U.S. since July 15th.

    Tankers location as of an hour ago.

    The F-22 are reported to have been launched or are preparing to launch from Langley AOR force base in Virginia. Langley houses 3 F-22 squadrons, the 1st Fighter Wing and 192nd Fighter Wing. We don’t yet know if the F-22s have left yet but we do know that a l C-17 Globemaster III landed at RAF Mildenhall rhat had departed from Langley.

    The C-17 Globemaster III that landed at RAF Mildenhall on Jun. 17, 2025

    While the C-17 isnt a tanker these massive general cargo planes are used when a squadron or similar moves to a new location. It would be hauling weapons and some of the other administrative equipment needed. More of these flights are likely on the way.

    The F-35’s are believed to be either the Vermont Air National Guard or the 48th FW at RAF Lakenheath, in the UK. The 48th is the only F-35 squadron currently foward deployed so their proximity means they would arrive much sooner and be available for mission tasking as soon as you can load them up.

    I don’t have much more than that for now but it looking more likely that the U.S. is going to get involved in Israel and Irans fighting. Well more so than they already are. It’s a fact that Israel has already had US military support in this conflict but up until this point that support has been purely defensive. U.S. assets have assisted in downing drones and missiles coming from Iran.

    Reuters put out an article about this as well, their writer claimed to have talked to 3 defense department officials, 2 of them stresses the defensive nature of sending these fighters.

    I’ve reached out to several of the squadrons mentioned as well as the pentagon for a statement, however nobody has got back to me, I’ll update if they do.

    One other thing I’ll mention is the rumor of f-16s also being moved to the Middle East out of Italy but I have less info on that.

    The U.S. currently has around 40,000 soldiers in the Middle East. That’s combined everybody from air force to infantry and all the logistics and support crew jn between . 

    Thank you for reading! I’m always available for questions or comments and can be reached by email or through any of my social media pages.
    Your support helps grow this page as well as supports independent journalism and reporting. I’d also like to thank the people who send me tips and heads ups, as well as other reporters who I sourced to help write this any many other articles. Journalism is a team effort in the end. I’ve always felt it’s not about being first it’s about being right. 
    Any spelling mistakes are there to give the article character.

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  • Israel launches Operation “Rising Lion”, Striking multiple targets inside Iran, including its nuclear facilities.

    Part one, Israel’s strike on Iran.

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/13/2025

    (Buckle up folks, this is going to be a lengthy one. part two tomorrow. -Scott)

    As reported last night Israel, early on Friday morning (local time), launched a series of strikes all across Iran with a focus on targets across thr capital of Tehran as well as a number of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Surprisingly some of the strikes were confirmed to have been launched by Mossad agents operating inside of Iran, a tactic Israel has used in the past for smaller scale operations. As the operation began this was the first video I noticed being circulated around.

    A view of some of the first strike to hit Tehran.

    Even now, almost a full 24 hours after this strike we don’t know Israel’s full intentions in this operation however we have a better idea of what they managed to hit. Israel conducted heavy SEAD and DEAD missions striking this radar station located in the Hamadan province.

    Iranian Early warning Radar struck in the Hamadan providence. Shown several hours after it was struck when the sun came up. A majority of the strikes happened in the early morning.
    35.185878°N 48.271270°E

    Following the path back from Tehran over the radar site and past Iraq puts us in Deir ez-Zor,Syria where Israeli jets were filmed refueling from their Boeing 707 tanker jets.

    Reportedly shows a IDF fighter refueling above Deir ez-Zor, Syria Friday morning.

    At this point I’d like to include a statement put out by the IDF.

    “A short while ago, following the directive of the political echelon, the IDF launched a preemptive, precise, combined offensive based on high-quality intelligence to strike Iran’s nuclear program, and in response to the Iranian regime’s ongoing aggression against Israel. A short while, dozens of IAF jets completed the first stage that included strikes on dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran.

    The public is requested to follow the instructions of the IDF Home Front Command, which will be updated as necessary, and act calmly and responsibly. The IDF and the relevant authorities are prepared for a wide range of scenarios in defense and offense that may be needed.

    For years, the Iranian regime has been waging a direct and indirect campaign of terror against the State of Israel, by funding and directing terrorist activities via its proxies across the Middle East, while advancing toward obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Iranian regime is at the head of the axis responsible for all terrorist attacks against the State of Israel since the beginning of the “Swords of Iron” War, including by arming and funding the Hamas terror organization which was responsible for the October 7th Massacre. During the “Swords of Iron” War, Iran even directly attacked Israel twice, firing hundreds of missiles toward the State of Israel.

    The Iranian regime has proclaimed that its objective is to destroy the State of Israel. Senior officials in the Iranian regime have publicly declared their intent to destroy Israel, and are operating to achieve this together with their proxies in the Middle East. Today, Iran is closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon. Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the Iranian regime are an existential threat to the State of Israel and a significant threat to the wider world. The State of Israel will not allow a regime whose objective is to destroy the State of Israel to obtain weapons of mass destruction.

    The IDF has conducted a process of preparations for a campaign on the frontline and on the home front. The resilience of Israel’s citizens will be an important factor of the campaign.

    The IDF is ready to continue to act as required. The State of Israel has the obligation to act in defense of its citizens and will continue to do so everywhere it is required to do so, as we have done in the past.

    The IDF is conducting an ongoing situational assessment and will update on any developments.”

    -Statement released to the people of Israel frim the IDF.

    It was around this point that AIs Senator Marco Rubio put out his statement. The most important part from that was that Israel had taken unilateral action and that the U.S. was not involved, but that the U.S. was advised that Israel viewed it as necessary for their self defense.

    Around 9:00 pm (Eastern Standard time) Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin put out a statement saying that Irans nuclear program had been attacked but that the IDF had also focused on targeting Irans nuclear scientist and ballistic missile program. That fit with videos we were already seeing showing strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile storage bases, showing probably the most secondary explosions I’ve ever seen at once as hundreds of ballistic missiles and other munitions cook off after the strike.

    Ballistic missile base in Piranshahr,.

    At around 9:30Pm (5:00AM in Iran) Iranian media announced that their enormous nuclear site at Natanz was struck overnight. Around this same time I was seeing videos coming in from the capital, Tehran. Israel has multitasked this operation, striking at Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp, IRGC, leadership. Multiple videos and images showed penthouse and high level apartments that were struck with precision munitions, killing Hossein Salami Iran Revolutionary Guards chief, Hossein Salami, along with Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri chief of staff of the Iranian armed Forces. Both were killed along with others in the first wave of strikes.

    After this was announced Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said this,

    (Israel)…should anticipate a harsh punishment. The strong hand of the Islamic Republic will not let them go.” He added “ The Zionist regime with this crime has created a dark and painful fate for itself, and it will definitely receive it.”

    Thanks to Planet Labs we have some amazing satellite images of some of the strikes. The first set is from the Tabriz missile base.

    This one is the massive nuclear facility Natanz from last month. According to reports coming out of Iran this one is completely destroyed. I’m hoping to get some more images tomorrow.

    A couple unconfirmed things I’ve heard. It appears that the F-14 Tomcats, the only combat F-14s left in the world might have been targeted. Also have reports that Iran lost many of its remaining F-4 phantoms.

    This was a large strike and we’ve only scratched the surface here. I’ll have more as information is discovered.

    I would like to split Iran’s response into a separate article just for the sake of making it easier for people to read and also because I believe it is still ongoing as I write this. So consider this Part One.

  • North Korea relaunches Navy destroyer that was damaged at last launching ceremony. (images)

    Image shows North Korean Choi-Hyun class guided missile destroyer on its side after a disastrous first launch.

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/11/2025

    After last months disaster of a launch North Korea seems to have quickly managed to repair their new Choi-Hyun class guided missile destroyer. Images from Maxar show it during its relaunching ceremony.

    Choi-Hyon class destroyer, this time launched now first instead of sideways.
    A look at the road near the shipyard showing bud loads of people coming to watch the launching of the ship.

    The shipyard where the first launch first took place in the city of Chongjin has a rather narrow harbor area blocking ships from being launched bow first, leaving them with only side launching which is a much harder procedure.

    The ship was first launched on may 21st when the accident occurred but was righted by June 2nd after which it was towed to a dry dock in port city of Rajin to the northeast of Chongjin.

    This yet to be publicly named ship is second of its class with two more being planned for the future. North Korea plans to utilize these specific vessels as Anti-Air destroyers however we don’t have a full picture of their capabilities.

    Image of the ship in dry dock.

    The black and white images were taken and released today by the awesome guys over at Maxar. They do amazing things with satellite imagery.

    The ship, as noted by The Warzone article (https://www.twz.com/news-features/new-launch-ceremony-for-north-korean-frigate-that-partially-sunk-appears-to-have-occurred)that came out earlier today, is in amazing condition for a ship that was showing structural damage even earlier this month. How the ship was restored, even superficially, is unknown.

    https://linktr.ee/globalconflictreporting

  • U.S. Middle East assets placed on high alert. Embassy staff in region preparing to pull out.

    By Scott Jackson

    06/12/2025

    A lot is happening in the Middle East today as the state department have put U.S. diplomats and embassies on alert that they could be evacuated at any moment as the U.S./Iran nuclear talks seem to be stalling after months of meetings.

    If these talks fail it’s likely that Israel with or without US backing will launch military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities causing Iran to launch retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, utilizing conventional ballistic missiles, as well as drones. The deadline set by the U.S. for these nuclear talks roughly two months ago was two months. Time seems to be almost up for the question of what’s going to happen with Iran.

    We’ve had some indication earlier this week as a load of anti drone missile that were earmarked for a shipment to Ukraine were sent to the Middle East. Some said this was the Trump administration pulling away from Ukriane however it seems more likely that the DoD views these assets as being mission critical right now.

    So far only non essential staff have been evacuated however that is subject to change as things progress. When asked about this earlier today why military and government families and non critical staff were being evacuated he said that they would “ have to see, thank you”

    Multiple unnamed U.S. officials who spoke to members of the media are saying that they doubt this weekends round of US and Iran talks will even happen. you can find that quote in WP.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/11/state-department-embassy-baghdad/e8d1a6a6-46ec-11f0-9210-87ee82efcc80_story.html

    The airspace around Iran has been subject to a heavy amount of t of GOs jamming. A thing that can be measured by looking at historical flight data of airplanes that flew close to the areas. This phenomenon is noticed a lot near Israel’s borders who were almost constantly jamming GPS signals during the war in Gaza. This is something we also see originating from Russia’s Kaliningrad however at a greater degree there.

    You can see this planes course was incorrectly recorded near Baghdad. This is a tell tale sign of GPS jamming.

    Speaking of air assets. I’m sure it will suprise almost nobody when I say that Iran has seen an uptick in aerial monitoring from the U.S. as of late. Reconnaissance and signals gathering platforms making daily trips around the countries borders.

    Image shows a the flight tracks of a number of US recon and signals gathering platforms thag have done recent mission around or near Iran. Most of the planes stayed near the Iran Iraq border however it looks like some flew into Irans airspace.

    The next bit we have is an advisory put out by the UKMTO or the UK Maritime Trade Organization.

    This UKMTO goes out to mariners operating in the region and warns them away from the Strait of Hormuz due to “increased security tensions in the area that could affect mariners”.

    While the U.S. presence in the Middle East isnt what it once was it still has the capability to retaliate if Iran starts launching ballistic missiles. On the 9th satellite flyovers at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean show that the base still holds at least 4 B-52s as well as at least 6 F-15s (along with some transport and refueling aircraft). Beyond that the USS Carl Vinson (CVN- 70) along with its CSG and carrier air wing 2.

    I haven’t even mentioned everything. The U.S. still has some several thousand soldiers in the region along with multiple air squadrons spread across Iraq and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the gulf partner states. 

    Hey guys I just wanted to go a little less formal to say that I don’t know whats going to happen, but whatever it is feels like it’s coming soon. Some signs are there that we are coming to a point where decisions are going to be made regarding all of this we talked about above. My point is tensions for these players are high and when tensions are high things seem to happen. Anyway for now we wait and see. 
    -Scott
  • Russian Su-35 shot down around the Kursk Region.

    Russian Su-35 shot down around the Kursk Region.

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/07/2025

    According to video evidence as well as Russian and Ukrainian sources, Ukraine has downed a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 this morning.

    “This morning, on June 7, 2025, as a result of a successful Air Force operation in the Kursk direction, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet was shot down,”

    Statement made on telegram from the Ukrainian military.

    The Russian army hasn’t yet responded to this claim however sources claiming to be Russian soldiers have chimed in. They say the plane was shot down but that the pilot had ejected.

    Video showing the wreckage of the Su-35 after being shot down.

    Claims have appeared online saying that a Dutch supplied F-16 using an AMRAAM was responsible for the downing.

    The crash is near Yurasovo village in the Kursk direction.

    F-16

  • Operation Spiderweb

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/02/2025

    On Sunday, we reported on a major covert drone attack carried out by Ukraine on Russian airbases across the country destroying a not insignificant percentage of Russia’s long range strategic bomber fleet. This attack stunned Moscow as well as western leaders who by all accounts weren’t made aware of the strike beforehand.

    ‘Operation Spiderweb’, the name given to the operation was carried out using semi trucks that were loaded up with a reported 117 drones total. The drones were used to target 4-5 different airbases spread all over Russia with the furthest being in Siberia.

    The trailers on the semi trucks were each disguised as sheds being hauled. When parked near their targets the roof was activated remotely and would slid off allowing the drones inside to be piloted remotely into their targets. Ukraine has done mass drone attacks before, often even but drones launched from Ukraine have to travel much further and are at a greater danger of being shot down by Russian Air Defense.

    Image released by Ukrainian security services shows the back of the trucks which were used as makeshift drone carriers.

    The drivers of the trucks were all Russian truck drivers contracted out by one (or several guys) using the name Artyom. They were contacted with delivery instructions and all had similar stories about getting to their drop off point and then the roof sliding off and drones started flying out. Russia is still investigating.

    Let’s go over each of the airbases and look at the numbers for Russian loses as best we can. These numbers are all based on satellite images received as well as open source information. Take the following breakdown for what it’s worth, an analysis done with less than an optimal amount of data.

    Before we jump in I’ll link to some videos one from the day of the attack and the other released today which has some more data we can use and is almost 5 minutes long.

    Here is the first.

    Video shows the first footage most were shown of Operation Spider Web.
    Belaya Airbase. Probably the hardest hit of the airbases.
    This video was released the day after the attack and shows strikes from all of the bases. A lot of the analysis I’m doing here will include things seen in this video.

    Olenya Air Base

    Olenya Air Base directly after the drone attack.

    On the Kola Peninsula, Air Base Olenya is an important part of Russia’s military operations. The bases aircraft are mostly made up with a collection of Sukhoi Su-24 and Tupolev Tu-95s.

    Most recent Google Earth Image from Olenya Air Base.
    Most recent imagery shows a line of TU-95
    This image is from Olenya but more recent than the Google earth inages.

    After Ukraine’s attack images look a bit different.

    The below shows the wider view in the aftermath of the attack .

    After looking at this data as well as the video clips of the attacks it’s believed that at least 4 Russian Tu-95 bombers were destroyed at Olenya air base along with one An-12 transport aircraft.

    Online sleuths have pointed out that in the video released after the attack you can see that at least one of the Tu-95’s had already been loaded with Kh-101 cruise missile. These bombers among others have been responsible for the recent missile wave attacks launched at Ukraine and her city’s. Some of the largest missile and drone attacks of the war have been carried out in the past 2 weeks.

    Alleged Russian cruise missile spotted during operation spiderweb.

    Ivanovo

    Ivanovo Severny Air base houses the 144th AEW&C regiment as well as rhe 610th Combat Use and Retraining Center for Military Transport Aviation.. The Ivanovo airbase houses a number of retired A-50 (and possibly active A-50’s) as well as transport aircraft like the Il-76. The video shows two A-50s being struck however I don’t know if these are the operational A-50s. Now we know Ukraine watched and planned this mission for a year and a half. I would like to think they wouldn’t waste the time attacking an airfield that holds nothing except some old parts planes. They had great Intel for this operation so it’s possible but I wanted to at least mention the uncertainty.

    Two images from a drone on the day of the strikes. These planes are covered in tires and other things used to break up line of sight for drones. Russia often uses tires for this purpose.

    Dyagilevo air base

    Of all the airbases. This is the one I have the least data for. I’ve yet to see satellite imagery from after the attack so I’ll just go by the video. It seems that a number of Tu-22s were targeted. At least 4 possibly more however I did notice that some of the planes shown in the video were struck multiple times. Will update this if I can get more info.

    Belaya

    Belaya air base in theUsolsky District, Irkutsk Oblast was hit pretty aggressively compared to the others.

    The base houses two types of Russias strategic bombers with the 200th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Brest Red Banner Order of Suvorov Regiment using Tu-22M3, the 444th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment with the Tu-22M3 and the 181st Independent Composite Aviation Squadron with the Antinov A-12 and A-30. Present at the base during the attack were also Tu-95s.

    This is the before shot of the airbase. Included fkr comparison with the after shot. This base has several decoy parking slots used to fool drones and satellites. That being said the paint for the decoys is very old so it’s fairly easy to spot. Sat images done by Planet labs.
    The shot after Operation Spiderweb. Sat images done by Planet labs.

    If my math is correct this airbase lost at least a solid 4 Tu-22’s, those are the ones that I can see, from the images, burned up and are completely destroyed. The video m of the attack shows multiple other Tu-22s that were targeted making me think that there is a good chance that some were damaged and need repaired or are not recoverable but we just can’t see it. So for now I’m sticking with 4 but it has an asterisk.

    I’m not counting this one, which is an obvious decoy. The fake wreckage might have fooled me but I’ve seen this base before. Pictures of this spot exist prior to the operation.

    The image with the decoy shows 2 of the 3 completely destroyed Tu-95’s. There is one more further down the runway which can be seen in the imagery and is shown to be struck in the video.

    Afterthoughts

    This attack will go down as one of Ukraines highlight moments in the war, showing a weakness in Russia’s current method of parking their airplanes.

    The line of B-52 Stratofortress at Anderson AFB.

    However. While my own country of the U.S. does have Hardened Aircraft Shelters, they are usually only found being used on the frontlines areas like the Middle East or in The Pacific. Protecting those w deployed assets is extremely important but it’s becoming increasingly glaring that some day, one of the US’s enemy’s could stage a similar attack, knocking out multiple squadrons of long range bombers before anybody even knows what’s happening. China on the other hand has been ahead of the game in this field building vast hundreds of these shelters for their air fleets. China who also happens to be in the forefront of drone warfare and combat tech. Could it be thag China sees a threat because they know the possibility’s of what rcan be accomplished with drones?

    The opening of a Hardened aircraft shelter located in South Korea. 
    I’d like to thank everybody who provided imagery for this, especially planet labs who allows me to be on their mailing list to receive these images when something big happens. That was a nice surprise after I started trying to find sat images to find them in my email. 

    -Scott

  • Ukrainian forces carry out massive drone attack on Russia. Target long range bombers. (Videos)

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/01/2925

    Ukrainian forces have carried a large-scale and coordinated attacks days ahead of the peace talks set to start in Istanbul on Monday. Using drones launched from inside Russias borders to strike at Russian fleet of bombers, allegedly destroying at least 41 Russian air assets. These loses include TU-95 long range strategic bombers used in the war to long range cruise missile across the border, and reportedly, at least one A-50 mainstay.

    According to the Ukrainian security forces the operation was known as “Operation Spiderweb” it involved striking at multiple Russian sites (mainly airfields) using drones deployed from the back of semi trucks and inside houses that were nearby. The drones were reported at Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya, and Ivanovo airbases. The total loses are still being assessed.

    Russian mil-bloggers were shocked at the failure of Russian air defense with one (Fighterbomber, believed to be Capt. Ilya Tumanov of the Russian Army) saying “ “Today will later be called a black day for Russian long-range aviation… and the day is not over yet.”

    The deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidents office Iryna Vereshchuk said that the Ukrainian security services had” set a new bar of skill in conducting large-scale combat operations on enemy territory.”she continued that the operation was “not a knockout, but a serious knockdown for the enemy.”

    This attack comes a little under a week after days of long range missile and drone attacks aimed at Kyiv. Some of the largest of the war. It’s unclear how Russia will respond.

    More on this later.