Global Conflict Reporting

Tag: Russia

  • Slim Ukranian defenders leads to major Russian push.

    By. Scott Jackson

    08/14/2025

    The Ukraine conflict has carried on for 11 years now with the full scale invasion going on 3 and a half years. While Ukraine has done a massive job holding back the forces of one of the largest militaries in the world, recent battlefield changes have the potential to change the course of the whole war to the detriment of Ukraine.

     Russian forces have carried out some of their largest advances of this year, pushing past current frontlines near Pokrovsk. Low numbers of Ukrainian frontline defenders has allowed small groups of Russian soldiers to push past the current mostly stagnant frontlines getting miles behind the front, at current estimates about 10km behind the lines.  If Russia has the reinforcements to push soldiers through these gaps in a larger scale, it could cause major problems for Ukraine. However local reports have it that while Russia is pushing people into the area, it’s leaving other nearby Russian positions undefended.

    Image showing the

    Ukrainian sources are saying that the current situation is chaotic at best. Their enemy has found a weakness and is doing everything possible to exploit it, advancing along a two pronged attack to the West of Pokrovsk. Ukraine needs to rush reinforcements to the region to fill the gaps and attempt to stop a breakthrough and collapse of the front. 

    Image from Deep state maps showing the front in this region at the beginning of the month.
    From yesterday.

    Donetsk has seen some of the heaviest fighting of the war and will see even more fighting as Putin and Trump meet in a few days in Alaska. Zelensky believes this attack is aimed at influencing the negotiations. Making it look like Russia is advancing quickly while Ukraine is losing ground. It’s believed Putin will make this a case to Trump in an effort to get him to try to force Ukraine to seek concessions. 

    “The Defense Forces are taking effective measures to stop the advance of Russian troops on the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk directions, where the Russian forces have concentrated over 110,000 personnel,”

    Andriy Kovalov spokesperson of the general staff of the Ukraine Armed Forces

    Analysis

    While the situation hasn’t yet become unmanageable, I don’t want to downplay how serious this could be if it’s ignored. I won’t sugarcoat it. If Ukraine lacks the reinforcements to patch up their defenses  they could lose the whole region and make their position in this war even worse. Ukraine has done an amazing job of doing the impossible in holding off one of the largest armies in the world up to this point. Making sure they rush defenders into this region, anybody they can spare, is paramount. 

    Russia seems to have used small groups operating mostly as a sort of light infantry to push these gaps. Using infantry on dirt bikes and bikes to move troops across open ground quickly. 

    These groups used reconnaissance drones to lead the way and the operations would tell them where to move and when making their losses negligible. In the weeks before now Russia has ramped up its strikes in the region. Open source analysts have noted the increase in glide bomb and artillery strikes in the region as Russia worked to soften up some of the more dug in of the Ukrainian troops who are operating out of trench bunkers and blown out basements. 

    I’ve wrote this article over two days and as I finished it Ukraine was reporting repealing some of these advancing troops.

    Azhur, a battalion commander with Ukraine’s 117th Brigade, said, “Are we holding them? We are. Are we pushing them? We are pushing. Are we advancing? We are.”

    Photo from Pokrovsk.

    While this recent offensive  feels mostly like a push to give Russia more to bargain with at the negotiating table I believe Ukraine also has an ace up their sleeve. The constant wave of attacks on Russian oil and gas production has done untold damage to the Russian economic outlook, losing them hundreds of millions, possibly close to a billion in revenue. Not only that but the war itself has taken its own toll on the Russian economy. 

    More on this as the situation develops. If you want to know what I suspect will happen I think it’s possible these Russian soldiers could be cut off from their support and destroyed but we’ll see.

  • United States soldier charged for attempting to trade US military secrets for Russian Citizenship.

    SPC Taylor Adam Lee accused of trying to sell secrets Russia.

    By. Scott Jackson

    08/07/2025

    On Wednesday August 6th, the FBI reported the arrest of Spc. Taylor Adam Lee, an American soldier who is accused of allegedly trying to steal and share classified information with Russia. 

    Taylor Adam Lee is a 22 year old, active member of the US Army, most recently stationed at Fort Bliss In Texas as a tanker with the 1st Armored Division. According to prosecutors and the military he was arrested on Wednesday and charged under the Espionage Act with attempted transmission of national defense information to a foreign adversary. Additionally, he was charged under the Arms Export Control Act. The government has requested that Lee be held without bond.

    According to the US Justice Department, Lee “transmitted export-controlled technical information on the M1A2 Abrams Tank online and offered assistance to the Russian Federation.”  He was attempting to trade the information he possessed on the Abrams to get citizenship in the Russian Federation. It’s unclear how it was revealed to investigators that Lee was looking to trade US secrets on its tanks to Russia.

    The M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tank.

    Writing earlier this year Lee said online that “the USA is not happy with me for trying to expose their weaknesses,” and, “At this point I’d even volunteer to assist the Russian federation when I’m there in any way.” (CBS News)

    During a meeting in July Spc. Lee met with somebody who he believed was a representative of the Russian federations intelligence services. At this meeting he handed over an SD card with technical data and other information regarding the Abrams Main Battle Tank. A discussion took place where Lee offered to give a physical piece of tech from the tank to the Russian “agent”. 

    After the meeting Lee messaged the agent “Mission accomplished.”
    He was later arrested by the FBI’s El Paso field office.

    Lee at the time held a Top-Secret security clearance. This would have given him access to sensitive information on many of the US military’s systems.

    GCR has reached out to the US Army and will update if a response is received. 

    The adversaries of the US regularly attempt to get active duty military members to share secrets, the widespread use of the internet has increased the risk of this happening greatly. In 2024 US officials warned that there was a large uptick in foreign spies targeting American’s through social media.

    Update

    As of this morning, I received back a response from the army as well as a statement from the first armored division. No new information but it helped me fill some things in

  • Russian Su-35 shot down around the Kursk Region.

    Russian Su-35 shot down around the Kursk Region.

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/07/2025

    According to video evidence as well as Russian and Ukrainian sources, Ukraine has downed a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 this morning.

    “This morning, on June 7, 2025, as a result of a successful Air Force operation in the Kursk direction, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet was shot down,”

    Statement made on telegram from the Ukrainian military.

    The Russian army hasn’t yet responded to this claim however sources claiming to be Russian soldiers have chimed in. They say the plane was shot down but that the pilot had ejected.

    Video showing the wreckage of the Su-35 after being shot down.

    Claims have appeared online saying that a Dutch supplied F-16 using an AMRAAM was responsible for the downing.

    The crash is near Yurasovo village in the Kursk direction.

    F-16

  • Operation Spiderweb

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/02/2025

    On Sunday, we reported on a major covert drone attack carried out by Ukraine on Russian airbases across the country destroying a not insignificant percentage of Russia’s long range strategic bomber fleet. This attack stunned Moscow as well as western leaders who by all accounts weren’t made aware of the strike beforehand.

    ‘Operation Spiderweb’, the name given to the operation was carried out using semi trucks that were loaded up with a reported 117 drones total. The drones were used to target 4-5 different airbases spread all over Russia with the furthest being in Siberia.

    The trailers on the semi trucks were each disguised as sheds being hauled. When parked near their targets the roof was activated remotely and would slid off allowing the drones inside to be piloted remotely into their targets. Ukraine has done mass drone attacks before, often even but drones launched from Ukraine have to travel much further and are at a greater danger of being shot down by Russian Air Defense.

    Image released by Ukrainian security services shows the back of the trucks which were used as makeshift drone carriers.

    The drivers of the trucks were all Russian truck drivers contracted out by one (or several guys) using the name Artyom. They were contacted with delivery instructions and all had similar stories about getting to their drop off point and then the roof sliding off and drones started flying out. Russia is still investigating.

    Let’s go over each of the airbases and look at the numbers for Russian loses as best we can. These numbers are all based on satellite images received as well as open source information. Take the following breakdown for what it’s worth, an analysis done with less than an optimal amount of data.

    Before we jump in I’ll link to some videos one from the day of the attack and the other released today which has some more data we can use and is almost 5 minutes long.

    Here is the first.

    Video shows the first footage most were shown of Operation Spider Web.
    Belaya Airbase. Probably the hardest hit of the airbases.
    This video was released the day after the attack and shows strikes from all of the bases. A lot of the analysis I’m doing here will include things seen in this video.

    Olenya Air Base

    Olenya Air Base directly after the drone attack.

    On the Kola Peninsula, Air Base Olenya is an important part of Russia’s military operations. The bases aircraft are mostly made up with a collection of Sukhoi Su-24 and Tupolev Tu-95s.

    Most recent Google Earth Image from Olenya Air Base.
    Most recent imagery shows a line of TU-95
    This image is from Olenya but more recent than the Google earth inages.

    After Ukraine’s attack images look a bit different.

    The below shows the wider view in the aftermath of the attack .

    After looking at this data as well as the video clips of the attacks it’s believed that at least 4 Russian Tu-95 bombers were destroyed at Olenya air base along with one An-12 transport aircraft.

    Online sleuths have pointed out that in the video released after the attack you can see that at least one of the Tu-95’s had already been loaded with Kh-101 cruise missile. These bombers among others have been responsible for the recent missile wave attacks launched at Ukraine and her city’s. Some of the largest missile and drone attacks of the war have been carried out in the past 2 weeks.

    Alleged Russian cruise missile spotted during operation spiderweb.

    Ivanovo

    Ivanovo Severny Air base houses the 144th AEW&C regiment as well as rhe 610th Combat Use and Retraining Center for Military Transport Aviation.. The Ivanovo airbase houses a number of retired A-50 (and possibly active A-50’s) as well as transport aircraft like the Il-76. The video shows two A-50s being struck however I don’t know if these are the operational A-50s. Now we know Ukraine watched and planned this mission for a year and a half. I would like to think they wouldn’t waste the time attacking an airfield that holds nothing except some old parts planes. They had great Intel for this operation so it’s possible but I wanted to at least mention the uncertainty.

    Two images from a drone on the day of the strikes. These planes are covered in tires and other things used to break up line of sight for drones. Russia often uses tires for this purpose.

    Dyagilevo air base

    Of all the airbases. This is the one I have the least data for. I’ve yet to see satellite imagery from after the attack so I’ll just go by the video. It seems that a number of Tu-22s were targeted. At least 4 possibly more however I did notice that some of the planes shown in the video were struck multiple times. Will update this if I can get more info.

    Belaya

    Belaya air base in theUsolsky District, Irkutsk Oblast was hit pretty aggressively compared to the others.

    The base houses two types of Russias strategic bombers with the 200th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Brest Red Banner Order of Suvorov Regiment using Tu-22M3, the 444th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment with the Tu-22M3 and the 181st Independent Composite Aviation Squadron with the Antinov A-12 and A-30. Present at the base during the attack were also Tu-95s.

    This is the before shot of the airbase. Included fkr comparison with the after shot. This base has several decoy parking slots used to fool drones and satellites. That being said the paint for the decoys is very old so it’s fairly easy to spot. Sat images done by Planet labs.
    The shot after Operation Spiderweb. Sat images done by Planet labs.

    If my math is correct this airbase lost at least a solid 4 Tu-22’s, those are the ones that I can see, from the images, burned up and are completely destroyed. The video m of the attack shows multiple other Tu-22s that were targeted making me think that there is a good chance that some were damaged and need repaired or are not recoverable but we just can’t see it. So for now I’m sticking with 4 but it has an asterisk.

    I’m not counting this one, which is an obvious decoy. The fake wreckage might have fooled me but I’ve seen this base before. Pictures of this spot exist prior to the operation.

    The image with the decoy shows 2 of the 3 completely destroyed Tu-95’s. There is one more further down the runway which can be seen in the imagery and is shown to be struck in the video.

    Afterthoughts

    This attack will go down as one of Ukraines highlight moments in the war, showing a weakness in Russia’s current method of parking their airplanes.

    The line of B-52 Stratofortress at Anderson AFB.

    However. While my own country of the U.S. does have Hardened Aircraft Shelters, they are usually only found being used on the frontlines areas like the Middle East or in The Pacific. Protecting those w deployed assets is extremely important but it’s becoming increasingly glaring that some day, one of the US’s enemy’s could stage a similar attack, knocking out multiple squadrons of long range bombers before anybody even knows what’s happening. China on the other hand has been ahead of the game in this field building vast hundreds of these shelters for their air fleets. China who also happens to be in the forefront of drone warfare and combat tech. Could it be thag China sees a threat because they know the possibility’s of what rcan be accomplished with drones?

    The opening of a Hardened aircraft shelter located in South Korea. 
    I’d like to thank everybody who provided imagery for this, especially planet labs who allows me to be on their mailing list to receive these images when something big happens. That was a nice surprise after I started trying to find sat images to find them in my email. 

    -Scott

  • Ukrainian forces carry out massive drone attack on Russia. Target long range bombers. (Videos)

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/01/2925

    Ukrainian forces have carried a large-scale and coordinated attacks days ahead of the peace talks set to start in Istanbul on Monday. Using drones launched from inside Russias borders to strike at Russian fleet of bombers, allegedly destroying at least 41 Russian air assets. These loses include TU-95 long range strategic bombers used in the war to long range cruise missile across the border, and reportedly, at least one A-50 mainstay.

    According to the Ukrainian security forces the operation was known as “Operation Spiderweb” it involved striking at multiple Russian sites (mainly airfields) using drones deployed from the back of semi trucks and inside houses that were nearby. The drones were reported at Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya, and Ivanovo airbases. The total loses are still being assessed.

    Russian mil-bloggers were shocked at the failure of Russian air defense with one (Fighterbomber, believed to be Capt. Ilya Tumanov of the Russian Army) saying “ “Today will later be called a black day for Russian long-range aviation… and the day is not over yet.”

    The deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidents office Iryna Vereshchuk said that the Ukrainian security services had” set a new bar of skill in conducting large-scale combat operations on enemy territory.”she continued that the operation was “not a knockout, but a serious knockdown for the enemy.”

    This attack comes a little under a week after days of long range missile and drone attacks aimed at Kyiv. Some of the largest of the war. It’s unclear how Russia will respond.

    More on this later.

  • Poland/Russia relations worsen over Russian sabotage. Hybrid warfare.

    By. Scott Jackson

    05/29/2025

    Last year Warsaw’s largest shopping center, Marywilska 44, was burned down leading to a year long investigation that was only concluded earlier this month. That investigation, led to the arrest of several Polish nationals acting as Russian operatives and connected to the Russian state and the GRU, Russia’s secret police.

    “We already know for sure that the large fire on Marywilska was the result of arson ordered by Russian services. The actions were coordinated by a person staying in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, the rest have been identified and are being sought,”

    Polish Prine Minister Donold Tusk writing on Twitter.

    This case of arson was one of several terrorist acts linked to Russia, all being carried out in the weeks leading up the Marywilska 44 fire. Arson is the focus of this article however attempted cyberattacks are another regular occurrence in countries that have shown support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. In early 2024 shipments of pillows, cosmetics and sex toys were filled with explosions being detonated in British Birmingham, Leipzig in Germany and in Warsaw, Poland. All of this is apart of an ongoing hybrid warfare campaign being waged by Russia on Poland (among others) as backlash for their support to Ukraine.

    Back to the shopping center Investigators in Poland are working with those in Lithuania for a similar series of sabotage activities believed to be linked to Russia according to a statement by Justice Minister Adam Bodnar and Interior Minister. Tomasz Siemoniak. Since some of the perpetrators in Poland had been arrested Polish authorities believe they have enough evidence to directly tie Russia to these crimes and Bodnar and Siemoniak continued in their statement: “Based on the evidence collected, we know that the fire was the result of arson committed at the request of the Russian security services. We have in-depth knowledge about the course of the arson, as well as the way in which the perpetrators documented it.”

    The immediate response to these attacks has been the closure of the Russian Consulate in Warsaw Poland however its still believed Russian operatives are carrying out other operations in Poland with several abductions being linked and a string of arson’s. Another consulate had been closed previously by Poland citing its link to a cyberattack, acts of sabotage, as well as other intelligence activities.

    This highlights Russia’s willingness and want to wage a sort of hybrid war, using terrorism and other more covert methods in an aim to punish those it views as hostile to Russia. In October of 2024 MI5 Director General Ken McCallum had this to say of the GRU was “…on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets”. A Romanian man was attested in 2024 in Birmingham after settling fire to a DHL warehouse on behalf of Russia.

    The Baltic nations have also had to deal with this extensively as Russian ships regularly attack underwater cables by dragging their anchors over them. Severing the lines. NATO warships often follow Russian linked ships now, even going so far as to have submarines tail these cargo ships.

    Actions like the one here have led to a wave of diplomatic closures as European/western countries,one by one, board up embassy’s and ban Russian diplomats from entry.

    Further reading-

    On this topic.

    https://jamestown.org/program/poland-responds-to-russian-sabotage-campaign-with-consulate-closure/

    On hybrid warfare in general.

    https://globalsecurityreview.com/hybrid-and-non-linear-warfare-systematically-erases-the-divide-between-war-peace/

  • North Korea’s new warship capsizes on launch.

    North Korean Destroyer under construction.

    By. Scott Jackson

    05/22/2025

    Yesterday, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jung Un along with a group of military and state leaders were present for the launch of the countries newest warship from the shipyard in the northeastern port of Chongjin.

    The ship is the 2nd of the yet officially unnamed class of guided missile ships launched in the past two months. The first in the series was called the Choe Hyon.

    Choe Hyon diagram.

    That launch was an absolute disaster as the guided missile destroyers stern slipped off the transport cradle that was to carry it into the water. The stern of the ship was thus stuck while the rest of it kept moving causing an as of yet unknown amount of damage to the destroyer as it capsized.

    In a shocking turn, the North Korean state run news were quick to confirm what happened and KCNA put out this statement

    “Due to inexperienced command and operational carelessness, the parallel movement of the bogies could not be guaranteed, resulting in the launching sled in the stern detaching first and causing the ship to capsize. The ship’s balance was destroyed due to a rupture in the hull in some sections, and the bow section was unable to detach from the keel.”

    This is a sharp contrast to the North Koreans love of secrecy with all things involving their military. Washington analyst have speculated this indicates a shift in North Korean thinking as they move forward with their attempt to build a blue-water capable fleet to extend their maritime presence into the pacific and beyond. Adding in the idea that the country likely wanted to get ahead of the news cycle before the satellites had a chance to do a fly over.

    Kim himself was more than displeased as he threw fury and accusations out in the aftermath. According to NK state run media Kim accused the military and the shipbuilders of incompetence. He called the incident as followed

    “…serious accident and criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism.”

    -North Korean leader Kim Jung Un

    Further, KCNA reported

    “Kim Jong Un made [a] stern assessment, saying that it was a serious accident and criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility … and could not be tolerated,”

    He has called for a meeting of the ruling Workers party in June where the “irresponsible errors” can be delt with.

    Satellite image showing the aftermath of the destroyer launch accident. NK has covered the ship in tarps to hide as much from view as possible.

    Satellite footage was released showing the current condition of the ship. Tarps were used to hide specific information. This type of side launch is a more difficult way to launch a ship requiring grater skill than simply sliding it in bow first.

    “The urgent restoration of the destroyer is not a simple practical issue, but a political issue directly related to rhetoric authority kd the country”

    Kim Jung Un.

    Kim has called for the ship to be repaired and operational within a month which is unlikely. The damage caused is likely to be severe.

    While North Korea has a small Navy building a missile destroyer is not something North Korean shipyards have done more than once, launching the Choe Hyon last month in April. However many have wondered just how North Korea managed to build a ship like the Choe Hyon so quickly. One reason is the new military cooperation between Russian and North Korea, Russia is able to offer help and advice on shipbuilding to North Korea and North Korea has given soldiers, missiles and other support. Another reason the ship was built so quick is because the ship has zero propulsion as of when it was photographed during some live fire weapons testing. A sign of corners being cut during its production in an effort to rush a destroyer program, a program that Kim Jung Un knows will give his country more renown.

    A shot of North Korean guided missile destroyer Choe Hyon during its live fire weapons testing. We can see a large open spot where the
    propulsion machinery for the ship would usually be.

    Without propulsion the Choe Hyon was almost certainly towed out of the harbor for its weapons testing.

    Choe Hyon and its unlucky sister ship carry an impressive arsenal of weapons that were seen during the before mentioned weapons demonstration. A large amount of Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells. One of the main missiles loaded will likely be a before, unknown air defense missile that we have little info on. Other missile include a supersonic cruise missile and extra large launch cells for ballistic missiles. In total these destroyers have 76 VLS cells broken up into 4-5 different sizes for different munitions.

    While the different size launch cells have some advantages, having your missile stock made up of that diverse of a stock also has its drawbacks, especially if you want these ships to focus on air defense as has been reported.

    The launch of an apparent surface-to-air missile from the foward set of 32 VLS cells.
    Launch of a Hwasal-2 (or a similar)Long Range Cruise Missile.
    Another shot of Hwasal-2 taken from the flight deck.
    Close up of the missile.

    The ships are also equipped with the 127mm caliber main gun on the bow as well as 2 AK-630 CIWAS (Close in weapons system).

    The ability of these destroyers to be utilized as long range missile platforms is the most interesting and strongest assets for this set of ships. Analysts have questioned whether this ability, even on what probably only amounts to a token capability for North Korea is enough to put it high on the list of targets should hostilities break out with the U.S. or other western powers.