Ukrainian forces have carried a large-scale and coordinated attacks days ahead of the peace talks set to start in Istanbul on Monday. Using drones launched from inside Russias borders to strike at Russian fleet of bombers, allegedly destroying at least 41 Russian air assets. These loses include TU-95 long range strategic bombers used in the war to long range cruise missile across the border, and reportedly, at least one A-50 mainstay.
According to the Ukrainian security forces the operation was known as “Operation Spiderweb” it involved striking at multiple Russian sites (mainly airfields) using drones deployed from the back of semi trucks and inside houses that were nearby. The drones were reported at Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya, and Ivanovo airbases. The total loses are still being assessed.
Russian mil-bloggers were shocked at the failure of Russian air defense with one (Fighterbomber, believed to be Capt. Ilya Tumanov of the Russian Army) saying “ “Today will later be called a black day for Russian long-range aviation… and the day is not over yet.”
The deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidents office Iryna Vereshchuk said that the Ukrainian security services had” set a new bar of skill in conducting large-scale combat operations on enemy territory.”she continued that the operation was “not a knockout, but a serious knockdown for the enemy.”
This attack comes a little under a week after days of long range missile and drone attacks aimed at Kyiv. Some of the largest of the war. It’s unclear how Russia will respond.
Last year Warsaw’s largest shopping center, Marywilska 44, was burned down leading to a year long investigation that was only concluded earlier this month. That investigation, led to the arrest of several Polish nationals acting as Russian operatives and connected to the Russian state and the GRU, Russia’s secret police.
“We already know for sure that the large fire on Marywilska was the result of arson ordered by Russian services. The actions were coordinated by a person staying in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, the rest have been identified and are being sought,”
Polish Prine Minister Donold Tusk writing on Twitter.
This case of arson was one of several terrorist acts linked to Russia, all being carried out in the weeks leading up the Marywilska 44 fire. Arson is the focus of this article however attempted cyberattacks are another regular occurrence in countries that have shown support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. In early 2024 shipments of pillows, cosmetics and sex toys were filled with explosions being detonated in British Birmingham, Leipzig in Germany and in Warsaw, Poland. All of this is apart of an ongoing hybrid warfare campaign being waged by Russia on Poland (among others) as backlash for their support to Ukraine.
Back to the shopping center Investigators in Poland are working with those in Lithuania for a similar series of sabotage activities believed to be linked to Russia according to a statement by Justice Minister Adam Bodnar and Interior Minister. Tomasz Siemoniak. Since some of the perpetrators in Poland had been arrested Polish authorities believe they have enough evidence to directly tie Russia to these crimes and Bodnar and Siemoniak continued in their statement: “Based on the evidence collected, we know that the fire was the result of arson committed at the request of the Russian security services. We have in-depth knowledge about the course of the arson, as well as the way in which the perpetrators documented it.”
The immediate response to these attacks has been the closure of the Russian Consulate in Warsaw Poland however its still believed Russian operatives are carrying out other operations in Poland with several abductions being linked and a string of arson’s. Another consulate had been closed previously by Poland citing its link to a cyberattack, acts of sabotage, as well as other intelligence activities.
This highlights Russia’s willingness and want to wage a sort of hybrid war, using terrorism and other more covert methods in an aim to punish those it views as hostile to Russia. In October of 2024 MI5 Director General Ken McCallum had this to say of the GRU was “…on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets”. A Romanian man was attested in 2024 in Birmingham after settling fire to a DHL warehouse on behalf of Russia.
The Baltic nations have also had to deal with this extensively as Russian ships regularly attack underwater cables by dragging their anchors over them. Severing the lines. NATO warships often follow Russian linked ships now, even going so far as to have submarines tail these cargo ships.
Actions like the one here have led to a wave of diplomatic closures as European/western countries,one by one, board up embassy’s and ban Russian diplomats from entry.
Yesterday, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jung Un along with a group of military and state leaders were present for the launch of the countries newest warship from the shipyard in the northeastern port of Chongjin.
The ship is the 2nd of the yet officially unnamed class of guided missile ships launched in the past two months. The first in the series was called the Choe Hyon.
Choe Hyon diagram.
That launch was an absolute disaster as the guided missile destroyers stern slipped off the transport cradle that was to carry it into the water. The stern of the ship was thus stuck while the rest of it kept moving causing an as of yet unknown amount of damage to the destroyer as it capsized.
In a shocking turn, the North Korean state run news were quick to confirm what happened and KCNA put out this statement
“Due to inexperienced command and operational carelessness, the parallel movement of the bogies could not be guaranteed, resulting in the launching sled in the stern detaching first and causing the ship to capsize. The ship’s balance was destroyed due to a rupture in the hull in some sections, and the bow section was unable to detach from the keel.”
This is a sharp contrast to the North Koreans love of secrecy with all things involving their military. Washington analyst have speculated this indicates a shift in North Korean thinking as they move forward with their attempt to build a blue-water capable fleet to extend their maritime presence into the pacific and beyond. Adding in the idea that the country likely wanted to get ahead of the news cycle before the satellites had a chance to do a fly over.
Kim himself was more than displeased as he threw fury and accusations out in the aftermath. According to NK state run media Kim accused the military and the shipbuilders of incompetence. He called the incident as followed
“…serious accident and criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism.”
-North Korean leader Kim Jung Un
Further, KCNA reported
“Kim Jong Un made [a] stern assessment, saying that it was a serious accident and criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility … and could not be tolerated,”
He has called for a meeting of the ruling Workers party in June where the “irresponsible errors” can be delt with.
Satellite image showing the aftermath of the destroyer launch accident. NK has covered the ship in tarps to hide as much from view as possible.
Satellite footage was released showing the current condition of the ship. Tarps were used to hide specific information. This type of side launch is a more difficult way to launch a ship requiring grater skill than simply sliding it in bow first.
“The urgent restoration of the destroyer is not a simple practical issue, but a political issue directly related to rhetoric authority kd the country”
Kim Jung Un.
Kim has called for the ship to be repaired and operational within a month which is unlikely. The damage caused is likely to be severe.
While North Korea has a small Navy building a missile destroyer is not something North Korean shipyards have done more than once, launching the Choe Hyon last month in April. However many have wondered just how North Korea managed to build a ship like the Choe Hyon so quickly. One reason is the new military cooperation between Russian and North Korea, Russia is able to offer help and advice on shipbuilding to North Korea and North Korea has given soldiers, missiles and other support. Another reason the ship was built so quick is because the ship has zero propulsion as of when it was photographed during some live fire weapons testing. A sign of corners being cut during its production in an effort to rush a destroyer program, a program that Kim Jung Un knows will give his country more renown.
A shot of North Korean guided missile destroyer Choe Hyon during its live fire weapons testing. We can see a large open spot where the propulsion machinery for the ship would usually be.
Without propulsion the Choe Hyon was almost certainly towed out of the harbor for its weapons testing.
Choe Hyon and its unlucky sister ship carry an impressive arsenal of weapons that were seen during the before mentioned weapons demonstration. A large amount of Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells. One of the main missiles loaded will likely be a before, unknown air defense missile that we have little info on. Other missile include a supersonic cruise missile and extra large launch cells for ballistic missiles. In total these destroyers have 76 VLS cells broken up into 4-5 different sizes for different munitions.
While the different size launch cells have some advantages, having your missile stock made up of that diverse of a stock also has its drawbacks, especially if you want these ships to focus on air defense as has been reported.
The launch of an apparent surface-to-air missile from the foward set of 32 VLS cells. Launch of a Hwasal-2 (or a similar)Long Range Cruise Missile.Another shot of Hwasal-2 taken from the flight deck.Close up of the missile.
The ships are also equipped with the 127mm caliber main gun on the bow as well as 2 AK-630 CIWAS (Close in weapons system).
The ability of these destroyers to be utilized as long range missile platforms is the most interesting and strongest assets for this set of ships. Analysts have questioned whether this ability, even on what probably only amounts to a token capability for North Korea is enough to put it high on the list of targets should hostilities break out with the U.S. or other western powers.
Using American supplied AIM-9 sidewinder air-to-air missiles, Ukrainian forces have shot down two Russian fighter jets sent to intercept the drones as they patrolled the Black Sea.
First image released of Ukrainian Magura V7 Surface Drone.
On May 2nd, early reports said that a Ukrainian Magura V5 drone had shot down a Russian SU-30 Flanker over the Black Sea however statements from LT. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Directorate (HUR), as well as president Zelenskyy show that it was in face the largest Magura V7. The V7 is a brand new version not seen before by the public. It is very similar to the former versions that were used to ram Russian ships while packed with explosion. Essentially from how it was explained the V7 is the air defense version of the Magura line of drones.
While it was initially reported that the V7 carried out the task of shooting down the Russian flankers with a modified R-73 (AA-11 Archer) we now know that American AIM-9 has been installed on ukra ian drones since around January according to a statement made by Budanov.
“We use a couple of models [of missiles] on our Magura-7, but the best results [come from] the AIM-9,” he noted
Video shows the shoot down of one Russian SU-30 Flanker over the Black Sea.
Ukraine has made the Russian air superiority over the Black Sea come come into question as more than these two fighter jets have been downed. Last year Ukraine used an R-73 fired from a USV to down an Mi-8 Hip.
The AIM 9M sidewinder is similar to the R-73 previously used with some added capabilities. The Sidewinder has defense against infrared countermeasures , and a reduced-smoke rocket motor making it harder to spot and defend against. Usually used as a close range weapon on fighter jets it’s find new uses in the war in Ukraine.
The U.S. as well as other allies have sent Ukraine an undisclosed amount of AIM-9M sidewinders that are used in several systems, including a SAM system that uses Sidewinders as well as Ukrainian F-16s.
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Today after many weeks and several false starts the U.S. and Ukraine have signed a mineral deal giving the US access to Ukraines large swath of natural resources as well as acting as an implied security guarantee for Ukraine. While the U.S. has provided support through the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were times when that support was seen as lacking or even pulled completely this deal should see the U.S. as having a stake in the future of Ukraine. This comes as US president Donald Trump attempts to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
A map showing the vast mineral deposits in Ukraine.
“this partnership allows the United States to invest alongside Ukraine, to unlock Ukraine’s growth assets, mobilize American talent, capital and governance standards that will improve Ukraine’s investment climate and accelerate Ukraine’s economic recovery.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
From Ukraine
“Together with the United States, we are creating the Fund that will attract global investment to our country.”
Ukraine’s Economic Minister Yulia Svyrydenko
This deal gives the US some stake in Ukraine’s future which will likely translate into other trades and deals down the road.
While this deal doesn’t stop the way it does cause a problem for Russia, as does anything that strengthens the ties between US and Ukraine.
This deal was announced earlier this year but was put on hold after a blow up in the Oval Office the two presidents, Donald Trump and Ukraine President Zelenskyy, got into an argument over the war essentially boiled down to Ukraine wanted a security guarantee and the U.S. didn’t want to commit under those terms. There is more but it’s been talked about enough elsewhere.
This is a developing story and will be updated later.
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un revealed the country’s new airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) jet at an event at Pyongyang International Airport.
The plane is designed around the body of a Ilyushin Il-76 Candid, the same plane used for the Russian’s Beriev A-50 “Mainstay” and the Chinese Shaanxi KJ-2000 “Mainring”. The name of the new North Korean airplane has not been released as of yet.
Russian “Mainstay “ flanked by two Russian MiG-31’s.Chinese “Mainring”
One thing noticed about the North Korean version of this aircraft is that it lacks the normal amount of antenna one would usually expect in these types of planes. This could signal a lack of features found in Russian and Chinese version. Another difference, at least to the Russian Mainstay is that the radome on top does not spin. This is similar to the Chinese version. Fixed radomes like this house 3 fixed phased array radars that each cover 120 degrees of the sky for a fill 369 degrees.
North Korean leader Kim Jung Un climbs aboard new NK AWAC’s. Diagram showing the degrees of coverage from the plane.
Images of the interior of the plane were also released showing at least seven individual workstations and several flatscreens for displaying mission data. AEW&C aircraft typically have large crews for operating the radar as well covering traffic control duties for friendly aircraft and mission control for different units. The exsist acne of this plane has been known for over a year as satilite pictures were released showing the plane under construction. The Warzone has an older write up on the possible capabilities of North Korean AEW&C’s that I would like to include.
Kim Jung Un tours the interior of the NK Airborne Early Warning & Command airplane.
“While it’s questionable to what degree more complex battle management and command and control functions could be mastered by North Korea, and hosted aboard an AEW&C aircraft, the ability to extend airborne radar coverage over considerable distances would be a great advantage, either providing prior warning of a potential attack from South Korea and/or tracking incoming aircraft and missiles during at least the opening moments of a conflict. The data it collects could also be shared with surface-to-air missile operators to help provide extra warning to enhance their operations. More importantly, it would provide a new tool for daily surveillance of North Korean and South Korean airspace and an avenue to learn to better perfect AEW&C capabilities.”
They went in to include.
“Ultimately, an airborne radar, as found in an AEW&C aircraft, provides a ‘look down’ capability that can spot aircraft, cruise missiles, or drones among the ground clutter and is far less restricted by high terrain compared to ground-based radars. No such radar was previously available to North Korea.”
“On the other hand, there are no signs that North Korea is converting more than a single Il-76 for the AEW&C mission, which means this kind of coverage would be necessarily limited.”
A shot of the plane under construction back in 2024. Shot from earlier this year.
It’s likely but unclear how much support North Korea received from China or Russia in the construction of the craft. One thought is that Russia provided help with the project in exchange for North Koreas recent aid in Russia’s invasion into Ukraine. North Korea earlier sent around 10,000 soldiers to help in Russia Kursk region and just recently it was announced that 2,000 more were being dispatched to the region.
Thursday March 20th, Ukraine struck one of Russia’s most important airbases, housing Russia strategic bombers, with drones. The attack triggered a huge explosion that was caught on geolocated video.
Engels 2 Airbase
Engles-2 is located 450 miles from the Ukrainian frontline. While Russia or Ukraine both didn’t report directly what was used to carry out the attack, Russian forces in the area did report shooting down 54 drones during the time the base came under attack.
Russia’s Engels-2 airbase is one of its most important airbases as it is the one airbase operating Russia’s Tupolev TU-160’s (NATO reporting name Blackjack). The TU-160 is a supersonic, variable swept-wing, nuclear capable long-range, strategic bomber that has been during the Russia/Ukraine war to launch long range cruise missile into Ukraine.
The TU-160. While often compared to the Rockwell B-1 ”Lancer” the TU-160 is significantly larger and faster while the B-1 has a larger payload. The TU-160 was designed as a long range cruise missile platform, the Bone on the other hand excels at penetrating highly contested airspace’s with its speed and ability to use terrain masking by flying very low.
While the bombers would be a nice target it appears the main focus of the attack was on something even more critical to the war. Looking at the satellite images, released in the days since the attack, show that all of the TU-160’s or TU-95’s were undamaged after the attack. The drones mostly targeted an area of the airbase being used to store munitions. The base, along with regular munitions, is used for the maintaining and storage of the Russian KH-101 Cruise missile although it’s not verified if any of them were damaged or destroyed.
Overview of the whole airfield. Affected area is off by itself in the top right under the Maxar logo. The before shot of an ammunition storage area of the airbase. These ammo storage areas, generally are fairly easy to spot as it will usually be an underground building or a regular building with raised dirt berms surrounding it. The dirt is there tj absorb shock and hopefully protect neighboring buildings in case of an explosion. The after shot. A number of buildings here are completely destroyed, either from direct targeting or a result of the blast and resulting fire that blazed for two days.
The fire in the aftermath of the attack led to a state of emergency being declared in the region as civilians were evacuated. Some having had their houses damaged in the explosion.
Video shows the soon after from the explosion, you can see that some of the houses were damaged from the shockwave of the large blast.
The explosion damaged many homes in the immediate area. Windows busted or blown out, as well as roofs being damaged or having sections completely blown off.
Early on Tuesday morning Ukraine targeted the Moscow region with its largest drone attack on the Russian capital since the start of the war, damaging high rise buildings and leaving at least 2 dead and 20 wounded including several children. Additionally, air traffic at all 4 of Moscow’s airport and the city’s train system was suspended and delayed.
The drones approved the city in several waves according to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin who put out a statement to local and international media.
I‘ve added some videos of the attack taken by locals and local news.
The scene from around the city as hundreds of drones attack Moscow and the regions around it.
All of this comes after Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s failed meeting with US president Donald Trump in which the two plus the Bice President JD Vance argued on live tv about the state of the war. After that meeting all US aid shipments to Ukraine were canceled along with all US supplied intel. The cancelation of the intel and supplies has been reversed but not before Russia made large gains taking back dozens of settlements that were held by Ukraine for months inside of Kursk. Tomorrow I’m going to do an overall update on the date of the war in Ukraine on all fronts, so stay tuned for that.
The parliament of the Baltic nation of Lithuania, last July , voted to withdraw from the convention banning the use of cluster munitions. That vote put a 6 month timer on the withdrawal which ended this month on the 6th.
Lithuania pulling out of this treaty was a clear message. They will defend their homeland by any means necessary.
“Russia uses all available tools in a conventional war, and this shows that we must act to ensure effective deterrence and defense… Withdrawing from the convention gives us the opportunity to increase the effectiveness of our defense against wide-area targets …The most effective deterrence and defense is achieved when you possess these weapons and know how to use them.”
Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa
Lithuania is a small country but all makes between 18-23 serve in the armed forces,
The protective “sarcophagus” over the reactor core for reactor number 4.
At around 1:50 a.m. local time the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency said a blast occurred on the roof of the metal sarcophagus housing the concrete cover over the irradiated remains of reactor 4’s core. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims that a Russian suicide drone was the cause of the explosion, Russian officials at the Kremlin deny this.
“There is no talk about strikes on nuclear infrastructure, nuclear energy facilities, any such claim isn’t true, our military doesn’t do that,” Peskov said in a conference call with reporters. said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in a conference with the press.
The drone can be seen on video coming in from the Northeast. Russian/Belarusian territory. Pictures of the aftermath show some debris from the drone. The engine appears to be the same as what is found on an Iranian supplied Shahed drone used by Russian forces.
Video from a security camera shows the drone that impacted on the reactors outer casing. Debris found after the strike. Note the engine in the middle. Shahed Drone Engine. Another angle.
Chernobyl was the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster in 1986. The control room was running a series of test simulating cooling the reactor in blackout conditions. There was an unplanned drop in reactor power and then a surge in power when the control team tried to take the reactor offline and some components used for reactor cooling started rupturing and losing coolant. This resulted in an explosion of steam and a reactor meltdown that destroyed the containment building. Radiation spread for thousands of miles across the USSR and Europe. The series of events leading up to the meltdown are well documented online but if you want the Hollywood version that’s a little easier to understand the show Chernobyl did a pretty decent job of explaining how the core meltdown occurred.
While the initial explosion only killed 2 engineers and wounded 2 others, the resulting radiation affected thousands and is remembered as the worst nuclear disaster in as well as the most expensive human disaster in history.
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