Still frim the video shows the attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk.
By. Scott Jackson
12/18/2025
Satellite images from December 16th show the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone attack on the port at Novorossiysk.
On the 15th, Ukrainian forces launched an attack on the port of Novorossiysk. The attack was carried out by elements of the 13th Main Directorate of Military Counterintelligence of the SBU and the Ukrainian Naval Forces. The attack was carried out using a type of unscrewed submersible and appears to have been filmed from somewhere nearby. The video doesn’t show as much as you hope when looking at footage like this and that has led to some debate over the effectiveness of the strike.
⚡️BREAKING: Ukraine just made naval warfare history.
Ukraine’s Security Service hit a Russian Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk using Sub Sea Baby underwater drones, leaving the sub critically damaged and effectively knocked out, the SBU reports. pic.twitter.com/VkrXDhOzGH
The before and after image show a clear spot of damage to the pier where the explosion happened and it looks like most of the damage is focused away from the submarine.
Before the attack. After.
Russia also put out a video showing what they claim to be the sub in the aftermath, however they don’t show any area that would have received more than minimal blast damage.
🚨 The Russian submarine Ukraine claimed to have destroyed… just reappeared completely intact!
According to Russia’s Ministry of Defense: ❌ The Ukrainian drone attack in Novorossiysk failed. ❌ No damage to any ship or submarine in the Black Sea Fleet. ❌ The claims by… pic.twitter.com/qgjrHpVx3Y
Twitter post with the Russian video showing the aftermath of the attack.
Analysis
It’s unclear from any of the photos or videos how much damage was sustained by the Kilo. After speaking with several submariner’s I’ve come to the conclusion that this attack failed at its intended goal. This subs depth rating is somewhere around 300 meters (984ft). At those depths and even half of those depth you have pressure put on the sub to keep it from imploding in on itself. Meaning sub hulls are built to withstand an immense amount of pressure. This explosion, with it not actually detonating on impact with the sub, preferably with some sort of shaped charge to punch through the hull, left the Kilo mostly undamaged. If the sub received any damage at all it’s going to be mostly superficial and able to be quickly repaired.
One effect this strike had was the closing off of the port in Novorossiysk with barges in an effect to stop Ukraine from attempting the same trick twice. Now that the sub sea drone is operational, I expect more attacks on Russian sub- and surface vessels in the future.
Today Ukraine announced that its military had launched attacks on two sanctioned Russian Oil tankers operating in the Black Sea.
The ships, identified as the Gambian-flagged Kairos and Virat were empty at the time of the attacks and it is reported they were heading to the Russian city of Novorossiysk, a major port and oil hub for Russia especially in the Black Sea region.
Tanker Virat after the attack. Mostly minor damage on this ship.
During an interview with Turkish broadcaster NTV, Abdulkadir Uraloğlu,the transport and infrastructure minister for Turkey, said the attacks took place within the country’s exclusive economic zone.
The Russia shadow fleet oil tanker Virat stopped near Turkey after it was attacked by Ukranian sea drones.
This attack is being reported by Ukraine as a joint operation between the SBU’s 13th Main Directorate of Military Counterintelligence with the Ukrainian Navy. The operation was carried out with Ukrainian “Sea Baby” drones which can travel long distances.
Video of the events were relesed across social media.
Морські дрони СБУ Sea Baby уразили в Чорному морі два підсанкційні танкери тіньового флоту РФ KAIRO та VIRAT.
Це була спільна операція 13-го Головного Управління військової контррозвідки СБУ з ВМС України.
The Russian dark fleet oil tankers Kairos (left) and Virat (right) were heavily damaged in the Black Sea yesterday after being targeted by a number of Ukrainian USVs. pic.twitter.com/cH9re9neTM
Both ships attacked have been under sanctions by the UK and European Union. However these two ships and the many more like them continue to find Russia’s nearly four year long war. They continue to haul Russias crude oil and funnel money to Moscow, fueling Russias economy.
“The Russian shadow fleet has become almost a tumour on global shipping,” said Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative.
“The shadow fleet has grown exponentially, and Western governments have tried sanctioning specific vessels … but every time that happens, another vessel enters the shadow fleet.”
These Russian shadow ships often carry “flags of convenience” often being flagged in places with little knowledge or experience in maritime affairs, places like the Gambia and Cook Islands.
Ships that’s are sanctioned have no access to western ports and personnel. They are barred from trading from many nations however are still able to find buyers in China and even in Europe. Some European nations still buy Russian gas and oil either directly or through a third party.
The Russian shadow fleet is made up of as many as a reported 1500 ship as of 2024 highlighting the ineffectiveness of the western sanctions to slow the flow of Russian oil. This is one reason why Ukraine has taken such an interest in targeting Russian oil production choosing instead to attempt to stop it at its source.
Two big announcements have come in the past three days signaling that Ukraine is looking to make changes to its military air power. Currently Ukraine’s military uses a mixture of old Soviet equipment plus whatever platforms have been bought or donated to them by their partners in Europe and America.
This weekend it was announced that Bell Textron, the American Aerospace company responsible for the AH-1Z Viper and UH-1Y Venom helicopters, have signed a ‘memorandum of understanding’ in Washington with the government in Ukraine. Essentially this starts the ball rolling on future aircraft deliveries, after the framework and support for the systems have been built in Ukraine. The statement released by the company and government of Ukraine mentions that these helicopters are likely to be built in Ukraine, bolstering Ukraine’s defense industry and going a far step to modernize Ukraine’s helicopter fleet.
Ukraine’s helicopter fleet is currently made up of mostly old Soviet systems. The Mil Mi-24 (Hind) gunship has been a workhorse in the current war and while effective for what it does, It’s an older platform with limitations. This deal will give Ukraine a fleet of modernized helicopters with a proven track record of combat capabilities. A huge benefit is that the Venom and Viper share 84% commonality meaning training pilots and support crew is much quicker.
While this deal isn’t finalized it does signal that the process is in the works and should go through as long as the U.S. government agrees to it. If the deal goes through it’s likely a number of aircraft will be transferred to Ukraine so they can start training pilots and the support crew on their operations.
The AH-1Z Viper attack chopper is a twin engine attack helicopter with a speed of 300KTS and a range of 310 nautical miles. The platform provides an excellent ground attack platform, carrying a main gun as well as air-to-ground missiles with the option of carrying sidewinders for engaging air targets. These helicopters are also survivable in the worst cases with self sealing fuel cells and armored crash resistant seats for the crew.
The Venom on the other hand is a jack-of-all-trades workhorse. There is a reason it’s sometimes called the Super Huey as the spirit of the Huey from the Vietnam days lives on in the Venom. It’s mostly used for carrying supplies or troops but it can also be equipped with rockets and door guns in case you just really need the extra firepower or a AN/ALQ-231(V)3 Intrepid Tiger II sensor pod for precision electronic attack capabilities (maybe in support of a squad of Vipers, for example.) Its speed is similar to that of a viper however its unladen range is a bit further. With a 2000lb payload its range is 150NM.
Ukraine’s helicopter fleet isn’t the only upgrade Ukraine is looking to. Just today Ukraine President Zelenskyy met with the Swedish government and signed another letter of intent, for the purchase of as many as 150 of the Swedish made Saab Jas-39 Gripen E fighter jets.
The Gripen is a single engine, supersonic, multi-role fighter jet. A highly maneuverable fighter, the Gripen is designed for what’s known as JAS in the Swedish language, Jakt (Air-to-air), attack (air-to-surface) and Spaning (Reconnaissance). The E version of this fighter is built with some higher end capabilities including electronic warfare, a more powerful engine, and increased weapons capacity.
On August 17th, Ukraine’s Yefrem Lukatsky a well known AP photojournalist released images showing the production of Ukraines previously unannounced, ground- launched, long ranged cruise missile, the FP-5 ‘Flamingo’. This Ukrainian produced cruise missile could become a strong contender for Ukraine’s most effective long range weapon systems.
The Flamingo is designed and built by Ukrainian defense company Fire Point. According to, the missile has a six meter wingspan and a takeoff weight of 13,000 lbs on takeoff. The payload capacity is 1,150 lbs. Its publicly started range is 1865 miles.
A look at the tail of the missile showing the engine on top of the weapon, much like designs from the 50s-60s
“We came up with it pretty fast. It took less than nine months to develop it from an idea to its first successful tests on the battlefield. I will not tell you about its exact speed, but I can say it’s faster than all the other missiles we currently have,” said Iryna Terekh the company’s CEO while adding adding: “It is completely Ukrainian-made.
The missile is already casing a stir in Russia, the state run agency TASS put out an article last week downplaying the threat posed by this missile. The article also tried to undercut the Ukrainian achievement by saying the missile was from a British design, which the Ukrainian company Fire Point denies. However the impact of the missile is already being felt on the battlefield.
“We watched Russian reaction to our first missions and I can tell you the more successful the mission was, the more Russians tried to choke all publicity around it,”Terekh said.
The missile is already in production making several units a day. The company claims they can make that 200 a day by the end of the year.
With the number Ukraine’s Fire point company is planning to make along with the range this weapons could vastly shift the course of this war, putting a good percentage of Russia industries, both defense and civilian into range of Ukraines new missiles.
The Ukraine conflict has carried on for 11 years now with the full scale invasion going on 3 and a half years. While Ukraine has done a massive job holding back the forces of one of the largest militaries in the world, recent battlefield changes have the potential to change the course of the whole war to the detriment of Ukraine.
Russian forces have carried out some of their largest advances of this year, pushing past current frontlines near Pokrovsk. Low numbers of Ukrainian frontline defenders has allowed small groups of Russian soldiers to push past the current mostly stagnant frontlines getting miles behind the front, at current estimates about 10km behind the lines. If Russia has the reinforcements to push soldiers through these gaps in a larger scale, it could cause major problems for Ukraine. However local reports have it that while Russia is pushing people into the area, it’s leaving other nearby Russian positions undefended.
Image showing the
Ukrainian sources are saying that the current situation is chaotic at best. Their enemy has found a weakness and is doing everything possible to exploit it, advancing along a two pronged attack to the West of Pokrovsk. Ukraine needs to rush reinforcements to the region to fill the gaps and attempt to stop a breakthrough and collapse of the front.
Image from Deep state maps showing the front in this region at the beginning of the month. From yesterday.
Donetsk has seen some of the heaviest fighting of the war and will see even more fighting as Putin and Trump meet in a few days in Alaska. Zelensky believes this attack is aimed at influencing the negotiations. Making it look like Russia is advancing quickly while Ukraine is losing ground. It’s believed Putin will make this a case to Trump in an effort to get him to try to force Ukraine to seek concessions.
“The Defense Forces are taking effective measures to stop the advance of Russian troops on the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk directions, where the Russian forces have concentrated over 110,000 personnel,”
Andriy Kovalov spokesperson of the general staff of the Ukraine Armed Forces
Analysis
While the situation hasn’t yet become unmanageable, I don’t want to downplay how serious this could be if it’s ignored. I won’t sugarcoat it. If Ukraine lacks the reinforcements to patch up their defenses they could lose the whole region and make their position in this war even worse. Ukraine has done an amazing job of doing the impossible in holding off one of the largest armies in the world up to this point. Making sure they rush defenders into this region, anybody they can spare, is paramount.
Russia seems to have used small groups operating mostly as a sort of light infantry to push these gaps. Using infantry on dirt bikes and bikes to move troops across open ground quickly.
These groups used reconnaissance drones to lead the way and the operations would tell them where to move and when making their losses negligible. In the weeks before now Russia has ramped up its strikes in the region. Open source analysts have noted the increase in glide bomb and artillery strikes in the region as Russia worked to soften up some of the more dug in of the Ukrainian troops who are operating out of trench bunkers and blown out basements.
I’ve wrote this article over two days and as I finished it Ukraine was reporting repealing some of these advancing troops.
Azhur, a battalion commander with Ukraine’s 117th Brigade, said, “Are we holding them? We are. Are we pushing them? We are pushing. Are we advancing? We are.”
Photo from Pokrovsk.
While this recent offensive feels mostly like a push to give Russia more to bargain with at the negotiating table I believe Ukraine also has an ace up their sleeve. The constant wave of attacks on Russian oil and gas production has done untold damage to the Russian economic outlook, losing them hundreds of millions, possibly close to a billion in revenue. Not only that but the war itself has taken its own toll on the Russian economy.
More on this as the situation develops. If you want to know what I suspect will happen I think it’s possible these Russian soldiers could be cut off from their support and destroyed but we’ll see.
According to video evidence as well as Russian and Ukrainian sources, Ukraine has downed a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 this morning.
“This morning, on June 7, 2025, as a result of a successful Air Force operation in the Kursk direction, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet was shot down,”
Statement made on telegram from the Ukrainian military.
The Russian army hasn’t yet responded to this claim however sources claiming to be Russian soldiers have chimed in. They say the plane was shot down but that the pilot had ejected.
Video showing the wreckage of the Su-35 after being shot down.
Claims have appeared online saying that a Dutch supplied F-16 using an AMRAAM was responsible for the downing.
The crash is near Yurasovo village in the Kursk direction.
Ukrainian forces have carried a large-scale and coordinated attacks days ahead of the peace talks set to start in Istanbul on Monday. Using drones launched from inside Russias borders to strike at Russian fleet of bombers, allegedly destroying at least 41 Russian air assets. These loses include TU-95 long range strategic bombers used in the war to long range cruise missile across the border, and reportedly, at least one A-50 mainstay.
According to the Ukrainian security forces the operation was known as “Operation Spiderweb” it involved striking at multiple Russian sites (mainly airfields) using drones deployed from the back of semi trucks and inside houses that were nearby. The drones were reported at Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya, and Ivanovo airbases. The total loses are still being assessed.
Russian mil-bloggers were shocked at the failure of Russian air defense with one (Fighterbomber, believed to be Capt. Ilya Tumanov of the Russian Army) saying “ “Today will later be called a black day for Russian long-range aviation… and the day is not over yet.”
The deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidents office Iryna Vereshchuk said that the Ukrainian security services had” set a new bar of skill in conducting large-scale combat operations on enemy territory.”she continued that the operation was “not a knockout, but a serious knockdown for the enemy.”
This attack comes a little under a week after days of long range missile and drone attacks aimed at Kyiv. Some of the largest of the war. It’s unclear how Russia will respond.
Last year Warsaw’s largest shopping center, Marywilska 44, was burned down leading to a year long investigation that was only concluded earlier this month. That investigation, led to the arrest of several Polish nationals acting as Russian operatives and connected to the Russian state and the GRU, Russia’s secret police.
“We already know for sure that the large fire on Marywilska was the result of arson ordered by Russian services. The actions were coordinated by a person staying in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, the rest have been identified and are being sought,”
Polish Prine Minister Donold Tusk writing on Twitter.
This case of arson was one of several terrorist acts linked to Russia, all being carried out in the weeks leading up the Marywilska 44 fire. Arson is the focus of this article however attempted cyberattacks are another regular occurrence in countries that have shown support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. In early 2024 shipments of pillows, cosmetics and sex toys were filled with explosions being detonated in British Birmingham, Leipzig in Germany and in Warsaw, Poland. All of this is apart of an ongoing hybrid warfare campaign being waged by Russia on Poland (among others) as backlash for their support to Ukraine.
Back to the shopping center Investigators in Poland are working with those in Lithuania for a similar series of sabotage activities believed to be linked to Russia according to a statement by Justice Minister Adam Bodnar and Interior Minister. Tomasz Siemoniak. Since some of the perpetrators in Poland had been arrested Polish authorities believe they have enough evidence to directly tie Russia to these crimes and Bodnar and Siemoniak continued in their statement: “Based on the evidence collected, we know that the fire was the result of arson committed at the request of the Russian security services. We have in-depth knowledge about the course of the arson, as well as the way in which the perpetrators documented it.”
The immediate response to these attacks has been the closure of the Russian Consulate in Warsaw Poland however its still believed Russian operatives are carrying out other operations in Poland with several abductions being linked and a string of arson’s. Another consulate had been closed previously by Poland citing its link to a cyberattack, acts of sabotage, as well as other intelligence activities.
This highlights Russia’s willingness and want to wage a sort of hybrid war, using terrorism and other more covert methods in an aim to punish those it views as hostile to Russia. In October of 2024 MI5 Director General Ken McCallum had this to say of the GRU was “…on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets”. A Romanian man was attested in 2024 in Birmingham after settling fire to a DHL warehouse on behalf of Russia.
The Baltic nations have also had to deal with this extensively as Russian ships regularly attack underwater cables by dragging their anchors over them. Severing the lines. NATO warships often follow Russian linked ships now, even going so far as to have submarines tail these cargo ships.
Actions like the one here have led to a wave of diplomatic closures as European/western countries,one by one, board up embassy’s and ban Russian diplomats from entry.
Using American supplied AIM-9 sidewinder air-to-air missiles, Ukrainian forces have shot down two Russian fighter jets sent to intercept the drones as they patrolled the Black Sea.
First image released of Ukrainian Magura V7 Surface Drone.
On May 2nd, early reports said that a Ukrainian Magura V5 drone had shot down a Russian SU-30 Flanker over the Black Sea however statements from LT. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Directorate (HUR), as well as president Zelenskyy show that it was in face the largest Magura V7. The V7 is a brand new version not seen before by the public. It is very similar to the former versions that were used to ram Russian ships while packed with explosion. Essentially from how it was explained the V7 is the air defense version of the Magura line of drones.
While it was initially reported that the V7 carried out the task of shooting down the Russian flankers with a modified R-73 (AA-11 Archer) we now know that American AIM-9 has been installed on ukra ian drones since around January according to a statement made by Budanov.
“We use a couple of models [of missiles] on our Magura-7, but the best results [come from] the AIM-9,” he noted
Video shows the shoot down of one Russian SU-30 Flanker over the Black Sea.
Ukraine has made the Russian air superiority over the Black Sea come come into question as more than these two fighter jets have been downed. Last year Ukraine used an R-73 fired from a USV to down an Mi-8 Hip.
The AIM 9M sidewinder is similar to the R-73 previously used with some added capabilities. The Sidewinder has defense against infrared countermeasures , and a reduced-smoke rocket motor making it harder to spot and defend against. Usually used as a close range weapon on fighter jets it’s find new uses in the war in Ukraine.
The U.S. as well as other allies have sent Ukraine an undisclosed amount of AIM-9M sidewinders that are used in several systems, including a SAM system that uses Sidewinders as well as Ukrainian F-16s.
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Today after many weeks and several false starts the U.S. and Ukraine have signed a mineral deal giving the US access to Ukraines large swath of natural resources as well as acting as an implied security guarantee for Ukraine. While the U.S. has provided support through the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were times when that support was seen as lacking or even pulled completely this deal should see the U.S. as having a stake in the future of Ukraine. This comes as US president Donald Trump attempts to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
A map showing the vast mineral deposits in Ukraine.
“this partnership allows the United States to invest alongside Ukraine, to unlock Ukraine’s growth assets, mobilize American talent, capital and governance standards that will improve Ukraine’s investment climate and accelerate Ukraine’s economic recovery.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
From Ukraine
“Together with the United States, we are creating the Fund that will attract global investment to our country.”
Ukraine’s Economic Minister Yulia Svyrydenko
This deal gives the US some stake in Ukraine’s future which will likely translate into other trades and deals down the road.
While this deal doesn’t stop the way it does cause a problem for Russia, as does anything that strengthens the ties between US and Ukraine.
This deal was announced earlier this year but was put on hold after a blow up in the Oval Office the two presidents, Donald Trump and Ukraine President Zelenskyy, got into an argument over the war essentially boiled down to Ukraine wanted a security guarantee and the U.S. didn’t want to commit under those terms. There is more but it’s been talked about enough elsewhere.
This is a developing story and will be updated later.
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