Today, in an act that the Estonian foreign minister is calling “unprecedentedly brazen”, three Russian MIG-31 “Foxhound” fighter jets violated Estonia’s border and remained inside Estonia for 12 minutes. They crossed the border in the area of the Gulf of Finland.
Russian MIG-31 “Foxhound”
NATO forces responded to intercept the Russian fighters with several Italian F-35’s being scrambled to track and intercept the Russian MIG’s. The alliance’s spokeswoman Allison Hart said ”This is yet another example of reckless Russian behavior and NATO’s ability to respond.”
Swedish forces also responded with several JAS 39 Gripen scrambling to the Baltic area where they intercepted and tracked the three Russian jets.
Russian Mig-31Swedish JAS 39 Gripen
Tensions between NATO and Russia have remained high since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but spiked even more recently as Russian drones flew into Polish airspace just 10 days ago. NATO responded to shoot down some of the drones in that incident as well. Poland called the incursion a deliberate effort to test NATO’s willingness to respond and its readiness.
“..three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen-clear proof of Russia’s growing aggression.”
“Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen-clear proof of Russia’s growing aggression.” Margus Tsahkna, Estonian minister of foreign affairs. He continued “Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure,”
In response to the incident in Poland, and now Estonia, NATO has launched new air patrol operations in eastern and Northern Europe. This operation is going by the name Eastern Sentry and is modeled after the Baltic Sentry operations that have been taking place in the Baltic. Baltic sentry added new aircraft and ships to its patrols after the recent Russian incursions and continuing acts of sabotage. The operation includes increasing air and sea patrols, as well as an increase in ground based interceptor launchers and radar. Eastern Sentry will focua mainly on Poland however it can be shifted to deal with Russian threats in other countries.
“Russia’s recklessness in the air along our eastern flank is increasing in frequency,” said NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte. He added that drones have recently violated the airspace of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania.
“This was no accident.” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas speaking on the Estonian situation.
The Russian ministry of defense has declined to respond to an email from GCR.
At the time of writing another situation is ongoing with 2 other Russian jets doing a low flying pass on one of polands Petrobaltic oil and gas platform in the Baltic Sea. While Polish airspace was not violated in this case it shows the willingness to engage in aggressive behavior on the side of Russia.
Last year Warsaw’s largest shopping center, Marywilska 44, was burned down leading to a year long investigation that was only concluded earlier this month. That investigation, led to the arrest of several Polish nationals acting as Russian operatives and connected to the Russian state and the GRU, Russia’s secret police.
“We already know for sure that the large fire on Marywilska was the result of arson ordered by Russian services. The actions were coordinated by a person staying in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, the rest have been identified and are being sought,”
Polish Prine Minister Donold Tusk writing on Twitter.
This case of arson was one of several terrorist acts linked to Russia, all being carried out in the weeks leading up the Marywilska 44 fire. Arson is the focus of this article however attempted cyberattacks are another regular occurrence in countries that have shown support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. In early 2024 shipments of pillows, cosmetics and sex toys were filled with explosions being detonated in British Birmingham, Leipzig in Germany and in Warsaw, Poland. All of this is apart of an ongoing hybrid warfare campaign being waged by Russia on Poland (among others) as backlash for their support to Ukraine.
Back to the shopping center Investigators in Poland are working with those in Lithuania for a similar series of sabotage activities believed to be linked to Russia according to a statement by Justice Minister Adam Bodnar and Interior Minister. Tomasz Siemoniak. Since some of the perpetrators in Poland had been arrested Polish authorities believe they have enough evidence to directly tie Russia to these crimes and Bodnar and Siemoniak continued in their statement: “Based on the evidence collected, we know that the fire was the result of arson committed at the request of the Russian security services. We have in-depth knowledge about the course of the arson, as well as the way in which the perpetrators documented it.”
The immediate response to these attacks has been the closure of the Russian Consulate in Warsaw Poland however its still believed Russian operatives are carrying out other operations in Poland with several abductions being linked and a string of arson’s. Another consulate had been closed previously by Poland citing its link to a cyberattack, acts of sabotage, as well as other intelligence activities.
This highlights Russia’s willingness and want to wage a sort of hybrid war, using terrorism and other more covert methods in an aim to punish those it views as hostile to Russia. In October of 2024 MI5 Director General Ken McCallum had this to say of the GRU was “…on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets”. A Romanian man was attested in 2024 in Birmingham after settling fire to a DHL warehouse on behalf of Russia.
The Baltic nations have also had to deal with this extensively as Russian ships regularly attack underwater cables by dragging their anchors over them. Severing the lines. NATO warships often follow Russian linked ships now, even going so far as to have submarines tail these cargo ships.
Actions like the one here have led to a wave of diplomatic closures as European/western countries,one by one, board up embassy’s and ban Russian diplomats from entry.
Over the past several days the North Atlantic Treaty organization or NATO has carried out a series of large navel focused exercises across the Baltic, North Atlantic, Mediterranean and Norwegian Seas.
For those who don’t know NATO is a military alliance between 32 member nations. Formed in 1949 as a way to provide collective defense to its members from the then perceived threat posed by the Soviet Union. It remained in place after the fall of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact.
The fighting forces of of NATO are made up of the military’s of the nations that make up the treaty by rotating voluntary forces. However NATO keeps several permanent navel fleets standing as apart of NRF- NATO’s Response Force. The fleets are made up of mostly destroyers and frigates from rotating in from member nations with the supply ships used by the fleet being the only constant.
Some of rhe ships of Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2).
The past weeks exercises not only focused on their specific goals (which I’ll get to below) but showcased the just massive amount of firepower and capabilities that NATO and its combined nations can field. Let’s take a closer look.
Dynamic mongoose 25
“Dynamic Mongoose is NATO’s largest and most intensive annual anti-submarine warfare exercise in Northern European waters. This year’s version, Dynamic Mongoose 25, has come to an end. It was both a great success and a memorable experience. With over 10 countries participating—with submarines, frigates, support ships, helicopters, Maritime Patrol Aircraft, and coast guard vessels—we have truly shown we are stronger together.”
Royal Netherlands Navy Commodore Arjen S. Warnaar, Commander of Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1)
Brining together frigates, submarines, support ships and aviation maritime patrol craft Dynamic Mongoose is the largest ASW exercises conducted annually by NATO. The event was hosted by the Icelandic Coast Guard and involved personnel and equipment from more than 10 member nations all led by NATO’s Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM). Carried out in the waters of the North Atlantic the forces would carry out different scenarios all designed around Anti Submarine Warfare and all of its complexities. The event teaches the crews how different crews and assets with very different abilities can work together to solve problems.
Dynamic mongoose had the participating sides rotate through hunting and evading in complex undersea warfare scenarios in the challenging conditions of the North Atlantic waters.
The GIUK-N Gap was a big focus for the event and is a key maritime corridor between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom/Norway. This event focused on an area that would be one of the most important areas should the capabilities become necessary. In a war between NATO and Russia for example, thag corridor would likely be a hot spot for submarines and has been considered strategically important since the beginning of the 20th century.
A map showing the GIUK-N Gap. Images from a previous year’s Dynamic Mongoose.
Formidable shield 25
Belgian navy frigate BNS Louise-Marie fires off a Sea Sparrow missile.
Participating nations include crews, ships from Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, U.K., and U.S. with the Australians providing a radar sensor for data collection only.
Formidable Shield is the biennially (During the odd numbered years) occurring largest live fire exercise carried out in Europe. This year the event was carried out from Norway and the United Kingdom and the North Sea and Atlantic.
This exercise focuses on Integrated air and missile defense among the different nations focusing on interoperability and the different procedures. In an overall defense plan, knowing your allies capabilities and their procedures and process is a positive. Learning what they can do, how do they do it, and how can everybody come together to strengthen everybody else.
This years event was carried out with the ships of the U.S. 6th Fleet and executed by Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO (STRIKFORNATO) and with participation from 11 member nations.
NATO’s SNMG1 fleet taking part in Formidable shield 25.
“There is simply no substitute for the training and learning that occurs when we operate in these intensely realistic scenarios…Training as a collective using NATO command and control reporting structure forges the bonds of interoperability and strengthens the alliance as a whole. Exercises like ASD/FS are critical for refining our collective integrated air and missile defense capabilities, ensuring we can respond effectively to any threat from any direction and maintain a credible deterrent posture.”
Capt. Michael Dwan, Commander, Task Group 154.64 and STRIKFORNATO’s U.S. Maritime Ballistic Missile Defense Assets Advisor
Netherlands Navy HNLMS De Ruyter (F804) De Zeven Provinciën-class guided-missile frigate served as the command ship for the event which will last for 3 weeks. During that time the participating ships will conduct live fire drills against unmanned drone and surface targets as well as subsonic, supersonic, and ballistic targets. Multiple nations ground based air defense systems will also be involved with the exercise.
The event is in part put together by UK defense company QinetiQ who supply alot of the targets that will be used as well as helps with range measurements.
Mediterranean strike
Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales (RO9), left and Italian Navy aircraft carrier ITS Cavour (550), right, lead the Mediterranean fleet.
Med strike is a large exercise ptaking place in the Mediterranean. It’s brought together one of the largest military navel fleets seen in decades and includes, 21 ships from the UK and Italian navy’s. 3 submarines, 41 aircraft( half of which are F-35B’s) 19 helicopters and 10 maritime patrol aircraft and more than 8,000 crew and sailers.
Like most of these events this one has a large focus on multi-national cooperation between the different nations involved. Canada, France, Italy, Portugal, Norway, Spain,Turkey, UK and the United States. The participants will work together on several drills including, live fire exercises, air defense exercises, anti-submarine warfare, and drill covering defense against hostile drones. Also one drill will focus on cross deck flying between some of the F-35s utilizing both carrier decks for takeoff and landing.
Some images from the exercise.
Open Spirit
Ships from 11 nations come together in the Baltic for Open Spirit.
Open spirit is less of an exercise and more of a yearly operation however I thought I would mention it as well since it is happening now.
During the world’s two great wars, WW1 and WW2 the waters of the Baltic were heavily mined. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania rotate yearly on leading this NATO event which see ships coming in to attempt to locate and destroy these “Historic weapons”. Last year’s event found around 40 weapons in the waters off of Estonia and was joined by a ship from the Finnish Navy for their very first NATO operation.
This year the focus will be on Lithuania and success is already at hand as the first of the years weapons have been found and disposed of. An explosive device was located some 38 nautical miles from Klaipėda port gate, in Lithuania by French minesweeper FS Andromeda which is currently sailing with Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 1 (SNMCG1)
An image from Open Spirit 24 showing the destruction of a historic weapons on the seabed.
This operation makes the waters of the Baltic much safer for general maritime activities. Since 1997, just in Lithuania more than 200 mines, bombs, torpedoes, the remains of 17 sunken ships and two aircraft have been discovered.
All of these exercises have one major theme in common which I think is important. All of them focus mainly on how to accomplish the task while utilizing every nations strengths and working together. The working together part is a big one. NATO would crumble if these very different nations didn’t share a common focus. I suspect that the early days of the treaty were filled with a lot of communication breakdowns.
I want to thank each and every one of you for being here and reading. It’s through the support I’ve received that has brought GCR to where it is today. While I feel we have accomplished some major goals I still want to do more and with you all behind me it’s not a question of if but when. I have some major projects in the works right now and a good number of you will already have access to those when they drop on Patreon.
I can finally say that the plan is to do a big weekly recap show and possibly another if I can find some people interested in being interviewed. I’m looking to talk to people who are knowledgeable about the regions we cover or people who have interesting stories related to conflict or geopolitics. That will all drop for the members on Patreon, they have been patient long enough and I think they deserve something special. If you want access to that when it drops as well as other future benefits I’ll link to the Patreon below. It’s $1 dollar a month.
Anyway I just wanted to let everybody know about what I have going on and what I’d like to accomplish this week. I’m excited to do something new. I love writing but this will have me outside of my comfort zone and that will be good. If people like it maybe I’ll make it a daily or every couple days kind of thing.
An ongoing story in Europe as 4 US soldiers have gone missing during a training exercise being carried out in Pabradė, a town near the border between Lithuania and the Belorussian border. The four were all apart of 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division and based at Fort Stewart, Georgia.
A comment from the commanding general
“I would like to personally thank the Lithuanian Armed Forces and first responders who quickly came to our aid in our search operations,” said Lt. Gen. Charles Costanza, the V Corps commanding general. “It’s this kind of teamwork and support that exemplifies the importance of our partnership and our humanity regardless of what flags we wear on our shoulders.”
The army later put out a statement that the crews M88 Hercules armored vehicle they had last been seen in had been found submerged in a body of water and that recovery efforts were ongoing. Members of the U.S. army as well as the Lithuanian army are working to recover the vehicle with the help of civilian agencies.
It’s very likely that the crew was in the vehicle when it was submerged as they probably would have showed up by now. The army would understandably want to notify the families and recover the body’s before any announcement is made.
Our thoughts are with the families and those who knew them.
The parliament of the Baltic nation of Lithuania, last July , voted to withdraw from the convention banning the use of cluster munitions. That vote put a 6 month timer on the withdrawal which ended this month on the 6th.
Lithuania pulling out of this treaty was a clear message. They will defend their homeland by any means necessary.
“Russia uses all available tools in a conventional war, and this shows that we must act to ensure effective deterrence and defense… Withdrawing from the convention gives us the opportunity to increase the effectiveness of our defense against wide-area targets …The most effective deterrence and defense is achieved when you possess these weapons and know how to use them.”
Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa
Lithuania is a small country but all makes between 18-23 serve in the armed forces,
February 17 concluded a 24 hour flight for a number of US aircraft that went on a “show of force” mission. Also called a “force projection” demonstration through the Middle East.
Flying out of RAF Fairford, South of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, 2 US B-52 Stratofortress long range bombers made their way south over Europe and into the Mediterranean and then on to the Middle East.
The Bombers were joined by a number of escorts from 4 regional partner nations at various points during its mission as well as at least 2 U.S. F-15 Strike Eagles.
B-52s flying with 2 US F-15 Strike Eagles as well as two unknown partner nation F-16s Vipers.
“Bomber Task Force missions demonstrate U.S. power projection capability, commitment to regional security, and ability to respond to any state or non-state actor seeking to broaden or escalate conflict in the CENTCOM region”said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, CENTCOM commander.
While being mainly a power projection mission the bombers also took part in dropping live munitions on several target ranges located in partner nations.
Live fire range bombing (location unknown released by US CENTCOM)
These bombers are apart of the 69th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron that just started the U.S. Air Forces first European bomber deployment for the year. They will fly out of RAF Fairford and are under command of U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa (USAFE-AFA).
Some of the B-52s in Europe had already been photographed earlier this week when a picture was released by USAFE out of the cockpit of a B-52 showing them flying alongside French Dassault Rafales, Swedish Saab JAS-39 Gripens, and Finnish F/A-18 Hornets,other photos were later released of the the flight. (shown below)
Operation APEX COMMANDER shows the U.S. Bombers operating with European allied fighters.
“Bomber Task Force missions reinforce our ability to rapidly project combat power, demonstrating U.S. lethality and readiness in a dynamic security environment,” Maj. Gen. Joseph Campo, U.S. Air Forces in Europe–Air Forces
While the U.S. has shown a desire to back away from European security it’s likely that the bomber deployments will, at least for the moment remain. US Allies do not, for the most part, have the ground attack capabilities that aircraft like the B-52, the B-1 and the B-2s can bring (as well as the new B-21 Raider. and interest in training alongside these bomber forces remains high.
French media reported that last Thursday night while patrolling in international airspace over the Baltic Sea a Atlantique 2 French MPA (Maritime Patrol Aircraft) was targeted by the radar of a S-400 air defense system. This aircraft additionally had its radar jammed, a constant problem around the Kaliningrad area for commercial as well as military flight, but added with that the fact it was lit up by a S-400s fire control radar at the same time shows a clear case of aggression and attempted intimidation on the side of the Russians.
Atlantique 2 MPA
The French military viewed this for the hostile act it was with Colonel Guillaume Vernet, the spokesperson for the French armed forces saying “Illuminating our aircraft in international waters with radar is an aggressive action. The professional attitude of the crew prevented any escalation“.
S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler)
While the French navy regularly sends Maritime patrol aircraft into the Baltic for the NATO mission to ensure safety of navigation and air and sea policing as well as surveillance of Russian forces. Recently the deployment of these assets have been increased in response to several recent incidents in the past several months where underwater electric and data cables have been damaged or cut.
The EstLink 2 cable carried electricity between Estonia and Finland before December when if was damaged by a ship, the EagleS which had allegedly dragged its anchor across it and several other cables damaging them. The ship and crew have been impounded since that incident pending investigation. EagleS is believed to be apart of the Russian shadow fleet, a fleet of cargo and oil transport ships using ships flagged in other countries but being used to circumvent sanctions on Russia.
Allied Command Operations (ACO) which is responsible for planning and carrying out all NATO operations has announced Baltic Sentry.
“Baltic Sentry will deliver focused deterrence throughout the Baltic Sea and counter destabilizing acts like those observed last month,” said U.S. Army General Christopher G. Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe. “It is indicative of the Alliance’s ability to rapidly respond to such destabilization, and shows the strength of our unity in the face of any challenge.”
Baltic Sentry is described as a “multi-domain mission taken forth by NATO in the Baltic Sea to deter any future attempts by a state or non-state actor to damage critical undersea infrastructure there. NATO views the undersea links as critically important to the defense of these nations.
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