Global Conflict Reporting

Category: Europe

  • Russian “Shadow Fleet” Tanker Seized in the Mediterranean.

    M/T Grinch (IMO:9288851)

    By. Scott Jackson

    01/22/2026

    Today French forces seized a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker that was sailing in the Mediterranean. The vessel, an oil tanker flagged from Comoros called ‘Grinch’ (IMO:9288851) was seized in the Alboran Sea, in the Western Mediterranean. The Grinch was boarded on suspicion of flying a false flag, as well as being under international sanctions. 

    French investigators onboard the Grinch.

    The operation was carried out in partnership with UK forces who provided intelligence. 

    “The operation was conducted on the high seas in the Mediterranean, with the support of several of our allies. It was carried out in strict compliance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”

    French President Emmanuel Macron said after the Grinch was seized.

    He also said 

    “We are determined to uphold international law and to ensure the effective enforcement of sanctions,” Macron explained. “The activities of the ‘shadow fleet’ contribute to financing the war of aggression against Ukraine.”

    The operation was first announced with a press release from the French Navy

    French Navy  press release translated below. 

    “On January 22, 2026, French Navy assets intervened on the high seas, in the Alboran Sea, on the cargo tanker GRINCH, en route from Murmansk, Russia.

    Conducted on the basis of Article 110 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, this operation aimed to verify the nationality of a vessel suspected of flying a false flag.

    After the boarding team, the examination of the documents confirmed the doubts regarding the validity of the flag being flown. A report was filed with the Public Prosecutor in Marseille, who has jurisdiction under the maritime court

    In accordance with international law and at the request of the public prosecutor, the vessel was diverted on January 22 and is currently being escorted by French Navy vessels to an anchorage for further investigations.

    This action, carried out in cooperation with our allies, including the United Kingdom, illustrates the unwavering commitment and determination of France and its partners to uphold international law.”

    End translation. 

    Last recorded position of the Grinch.

    The “shadow fleet” operated by Russia has received a lot of attention in the past,but even more so in the past couple months as both European and U.S. forces have seized multiple vessels suspected of being used to transport Russian oil. These ships are know for using clandestine means and  “deceptive shipping practices” to bypass international sanctions put on Russia for its war in Ukraine. 

    These ships, while called a “shadow” or “dark” fleet operate in the open, with multinational crews (sometimes even carrying Ukrainian crews) using aging ships with many of them being bought for exorbitant prices from the same western nations that sanction Russia in the first place . These ships will use techniques like changing their name and flag to avoid tracking by investigators and law enforcement. 

    Western powers are taking a stronger stance against Russia’s shadow fleet and Russia is responding, on Monday Russia sent the Project 20380 Steregushchiy-class corvette Boikiy to escort one of its tankers through the English Channel. 

    Project 20380 Steregushchiy-class corvette Boikiy

    The UK especially has signaled its willingness to step up the fight against these ships, specificly as a joint effort. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper saying to Politico “We stand ready to work with allies on stronger enforcement around the shadow fleet,” 

    She also didn’t rule out using the oil seized from these tankers to support Ukrainian war efforts. This gives Russia two choices, risk having their oil money being used to find their enemies or having their oil storage depots sit full. Neither option is ideal especially as Ukraine continues to target Russian oil depots with drones and missiles. 

    It’s possible that western actions against Russia’s shadow fleet could become a large flashpoint between Russia and western nations, especially if Russia responds to increased pressure with force, bringing the two sides to conflict.  

  • U.S. forces seize two tankers, one in the Caribbean and one in the Atlantic.

    By. Scott Jackson

    01/07/2026

    This morning U.S. forces have seized two tankers. The first, the M/T Marinera (formerly the M/T Bella-1) is a tanker that fled from U.S. forces while trying to get to Venezuela late last month. It has been tailed by a U.S. Coast Guard cutter since around December 17th and was taken somewhere between the UK and Iceland. The second ship is the M/V Sophia which was seized in the Caribbean.

    The seizure of the Marinera doesn’t come as a surprise as a number of analysts, experts and people interested in world events followed along as the U.S. moved Special Forces assets to the UK and the ship attempted to evade U.S. forces for several weeks. It has been under near constant surveillance since it fled from US forces while trying to enter Venezuela in December.

    On social media the U.S. European command put out a statement that said “The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro”

    The USCGC Munro is a Legend-Class National Security Cutter.

    USCGC Munro, photo taken from the deck of the Bella-1 several days ago.

    The armed forces in the United Kingdom had a large part to play in the operation including offering basing support to U.S. forces and deploying RFA Tideforce, a Tide-class tanker to the area. 

    RFA Tideforce

    The Marinera is being accused of international sanctions evasion. As UK Defence Secretary John Healey MP said “ This ship, with a nefarious history, is part of a Russian-Iranian axis of sanctions evasion which is fuelling terrorism, conflict, and misery from the Middle East to Ukraine.” 

    Map of the known course of the Marinera since August.

    Specifically the Bella-1 is sanctioned by the U.S. under its counter-Iran sanctions, sanctions attempting to curtail Iran’s efforts of destabilizing the Middle East. 

    Efforts the ship took to change and hide its identity and throw off its pursuers show that the ship is well connected to the international fleet of shadow ships. The ship already had a Russian flag onboard, likely in case of a scenario like this, or from potential cases in the past where it had changed its identity. 

    Two images taken from the Marinera show a little bird helicopter from the 160th Nightstalkers as the US prepared to board the ship.

    The Russian’s had reportedly sent a several warships including a submarine to escort the tanker to Russian waters however they never intervened during the seizure. L

    A statement from the Russian Ministry of Transport.

    As far as the M/V Sophia. All we know is that the U.S. seized the ship as it was trying to leave Venezuelan waters with its transponder off, attempting to conceal its location. The ship is not registered to any state and was said to be conducting “illicit activities” in Caribbean waters. Its reported destination was China.

    I’ve included the video that was shared of the seizure of the M/V Sophia by the U.S.

    If you have any information about this article or any others. Email me at

    GlobalConflictReporting@Proton.me

    Shoutout to my buddy Andy who was emailing me about this situation this morning as I was getting woke up. I was able to be halfway informed before I even knew anything was going on.

  • Russian shadow fleet ships attacked in the Black Sea.

    By. Scott Jackson

    11.29.2025

    Today Ukraine announced that its military had launched attacks on two sanctioned Russian Oil tankers operating in the Black Sea. 

    The ships, identified as the Gambian-flagged Kairos and Virat were empty at the time of the attacks and it is reported they were heading to the Russian city of Novorossiysk, a major port and oil hub for Russia especially in the Black Sea region. 

    Tanker Virat after the attack. Mostly minor damage on this ship.

    During an interview with Turkish broadcaster NTV, Abdulkadir Uraloğlu,the transport and infrastructure minister for Turkey, said the attacks took place within the country’s exclusive economic zone.

    The Russia shadow fleet oil tanker Virat stopped near Turkey after it was attacked by Ukranian sea drones.

    This attack is being reported by Ukraine as a joint operation between the SBU’s 13th Main Directorate of Military Counterintelligence with the Ukrainian Navy. The operation was carried out with Ukrainian “Sea Baby” drones which can travel long distances.

    Video of the events were relesed across social media.

    Russia’s shadow fleet

    Both ships attacked have been under sanctions by the UK and European Union. However these two ships and the many more like them continue to find Russia’s nearly four year long war. They continue to haul Russias crude oil and funnel money to Moscow, fueling Russias economy.

    “The Russian shadow fleet has become almost a tumour on global shipping,” said Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative.

    “The shadow fleet has grown exponentially, and Western governments have tried sanctioning specific vessels … but every time that happens, another vessel enters the shadow fleet.”

    These Russian shadow ships often carry “flags of convenience” often being flagged in places with little knowledge or experience in maritime affairs, places like the Gambia and Cook Islands.

    Ships that’s are sanctioned have no access to western ports and personnel. They are barred from trading from many nations however are still able to find buyers in China and even in Europe. Some European nations still buy Russian gas and oil either directly or through a third party.

    The Russian shadow fleet is made up of as many as a reported 1500 ship as of 2024 highlighting the ineffectiveness of the western sanctions to slow the flow of Russian oil. This is one reason why Ukraine has taken such an interest in targeting Russian oil production choosing instead to attempt to stop it at its source.

  • Italian fighters intercepted a rare Russian plane over the Baltic Sea. 

    By.Scott Jackson

    11.24.2025

    Last week, Italian Aeronautica Militare Eurofighter Typhoons intercepted a TU-134 “Black Pearl” over the Baltic Sea while taking part in their routine Baltic Air Policing (BAP). The Black Pearl is a pretty rare sight only spotted in the Baltic twice since 2020. “Black Pearl” is the name given to the plane by western military analysts, its actual NATO designation is “Crusty-B”.

    The Typhoons were stationed at Ämari Air Base in Estonia. They recently replaced the Italian F-35’s that were stationed at the same base. The Italians are taking part in the multinational NATO operation Eastern Sentry.

    The TU-134 “Black Pearl” accompanied by two Su-30SM2 and a SU-24.

    At the time of interception of “The Black Pearl”, a modified version of the civilian Tupolev TU-134, the district plane was being accompanied by two Sukhoi Su-30SM2 “Flankers” and what is believed to be a Su-24MR “Fencer”. The “Flankers” are operated by the Russian Navy, while the “Fencer” is from the Russian Air Force.  

    Sukhoi Su-24 Flanker.
    Italian Typhoon tailing the two SU-30’s.

    The Black Pearl is a Tu-134UBL (now Tu-134A-4 VIP transport) that was at one time used to train pilots and navigators of Russia’s strategic bomber forces. Anything from the Tu- 160’s to the Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS. The Russians added a very sharply pointed, bomber-like nose and a black paint job. The jet is now mostly used as a VIP transport. As it was encountered over the Baltic it’s likely it was hauling Russian VIPs to the Russian enclave in Kaliningrade. 

    NATO air command shared the images on November 21st, but implied that the images weren’t taken that day. 

    The plane was intercepted in 2020 by F-16’s from the Belgium Air Force that were also conducting a BAP. They managed to capture an inferred image of the plane from the F-16’s Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod. 

    IR imagery of the Black Pearl taken from the Sniper pod of a Bulgarian F-16.

    The Black Pearl is an interesting variant of an aircraft that you don’t see very much anynore.

    It’s believed the Black Pearl was shepherding the fighters for delivery to the 4th Guards Naval Assault Aviation Regiment of the 34th Mixed Aviation Division, assigned to Baltic Fleet Aviation and based at Chernyakhovsk Air Base in Kaliningrad, according to KEY.AERO.

  • Russian President admits Russian military at fault for the downing of Azerbaijan Flight 8243.

    By. Scott Jackson

    10.09.2025

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that the Russian federation is responsible for the downing of the Azerbaijani Airlines, Flight 8243 on Christmas Day 2024. 

    The plane, an Embaer 190 took off from Heydar Aliyev International Airport carrying 62 passengers and 5 crew. 

    The flight first experienced issues about 40 minutes after takeoff when it first entered the Russian airspace around Grozny. The pilots reported losing GPS navigational systems, due to jamming. The plane continued its approach at the Kadyrov Grozny International Airport in the Chechen capital. At this time the pilots reported twice tried to land at Grozny but were ultimately diverted due to fog. 81 minutes into the flight, and while the plane was still over Grozny,  passengers at this time reported an explosion and shrapnel striking the aircraft. The pilots thought they had experienced a bird strike and proceeded to initiate emergency protocols and squawked 7700, which signals to others that the flight is experiencing an emergency. They then turned back towards the Caspian Sea.

    The plane made it across the Caspian and back to Azerbaijan but the pilots were not able to maintain control of the aircraft while trying to put it down in Baku.  Video from the ground showed the plane changing altitude at a very quick rate as the plane pitched up and down as the pilots fought to bring the plane down with increasingly unresponsive controls. 

    Video from the crash of Azerbaijani Airlines Flight 8243.

    The plane ultimately crashed, bursting into a large fireball and split in half. Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed. Almost immediately after the crash there were questions. What actually happened to flight 8243?

    Photos from the crash showed damage not consistent with a bird strike. Damage to the tail looked more like the damage from the explosion of an air defense missile. In fact, several passengers had been injured from shrapnel from the explosion. 

    An image from the crash. The tail of the plane shows shrapnel damage.

    Russia right away denied that this had happened. Several days later The New York Times put out a report which stated that Azerbaijani investigators believed that a Russian Pantsir S-1 had actually shot the plane. On February 4th, investigators found fragments from a Pantsir S-1 missile inside the airplane’s fuselage. 

    At the time the plane was attempting to land the city was under warning as Ukrainian drones had been spotted in the area and shot down. 

    On December 28th Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the “tragic incident” although he didn’t elaborate further on the incident. 

    Today the Russian president, speaking with the Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, admitted to him that Russian air defense was responsible for the crash and that two Russian air defense missiles had exploded near the plane.

    The Russian President very rarely admits to mistakes by his military. More than a decade after a  Malaysian flight was brought down over Ukraine by Russian defense systems, Putin still denies Russian involvement.

    The previous denial of the Russian involvement in the Azerbaijani airlines flight has caused some tension between Russian and Azerbaijan causing Aliyev to become increasingly critical of Moscow, even offering support to Ukraine and condemning what he called the “soviet occupation” of Azerbaijan. Some in the country were even calling for the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan to be cut. It’s likely this admission of guilt by the Russian leadership is more about saving the relationship with an increasingly strong ally. 

  • Several NATO nations carry out nuclear exercises.

    US Navy E-6B Mercury refueling from a KC-135 Stratotanker.

    By.Scott Jackson

    09/24/2025

    On the night of September 23-24 both France and the United States carried out separate nuclear exercises. These exercises act as apart of a deterrence strategy aimed at making any potential adversaries think twice about attacking. They also provide real life training for the crews involved preparing them for a day that they hope never happens.

    Some components of these drills were monitored in real time.

    COST43 a U.S. Navy E-6B Mercury.

    COST43 the callsign for a U.S. Navy E-6B Mercury, the Airborne Nuclear Command Post and Communications Relay. The jet is seen in the above image heading back to Ramstein AFB, Germany after this mornings nuclear exercise by U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) over Northern Europe.

    (more…)

  • NATO scrambles as Russian aircraft violate Estonian airspace.

    By. Scott Jackson

    09/19/2025

    Today, in an act that the Estonian foreign minister is calling  “unprecedentedly brazen”, three Russian MIG-31 “Foxhound” fighter jets violated Estonia’s border and remained inside Estonia for 12 minutes. They crossed the border in the area of the Gulf of Finland.

    Russian MIG-31 “Foxhound”

    NATO forces responded to intercept the Russian fighters with several Italian F-35’s being scrambled to track and intercept the Russian MIG’s. The alliance’s spokeswoman Allison Hart said ”This is yet another example of reckless Russian behavior and NATO’s ability to respond.”

    Swedish forces also responded with several JAS 39 Gripen scrambling to the Baltic area where they intercepted and tracked the three Russian jets.

    Russian Mig-31
    Swedish JAS 39 Gripen

    Tensions between NATO and Russia have remained high since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but spiked even more recently as Russian drones flew into Polish airspace just 10 days ago. NATO responded to shoot down some of the drones in that incident as well. Poland called the incursion a deliberate effort to test NATO’s willingness to respond and its readiness. 

    “..three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen-clear proof of Russia’s growing aggression.”

    “Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen-clear proof of Russia’s growing aggression.” Margus Tsahkna, Estonian minister of foreign affairs. He continued “Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure,”

    In response to the incident in Poland, and now Estonia, NATO has launched new air patrol operations in eastern and Northern Europe. This operation is going by the name Eastern Sentry and is modeled after the Baltic Sentry operations that have been taking place in the Baltic. Baltic sentry added new aircraft and ships to its patrols after the recent Russian incursions and continuing acts of sabotage. The operation includes increasing air and sea patrols, as well as an increase in ground based interceptor launchers and radar. Eastern Sentry will focua mainly on Poland however it can be shifted to deal with Russian threats in other countries. 

    “Russia’s recklessness in the air along our eastern flank is increasing in frequency,” said NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte. He added that drones have recently violated the airspace of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania.

    “This was no accident.” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas speaking on the Estonian situation. 

    The Russian ministry of defense has declined to respond to an email from GCR. 

    At the time of writing another situation is ongoing with 2 other Russian jets doing a low flying pass on one of polands Petrobaltic oil and gas platform in the Baltic Sea. While Polish airspace was not violated in this case it shows the willingness to engage in aggressive behavior on the side of Russia.

  • Russian Su-35 shot down around the Kursk Region.

    Russian Su-35 shot down around the Kursk Region.

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/07/2025

    According to video evidence as well as Russian and Ukrainian sources, Ukraine has downed a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 this morning.

    “This morning, on June 7, 2025, as a result of a successful Air Force operation in the Kursk direction, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet was shot down,”

    Statement made on telegram from the Ukrainian military.

    The Russian army hasn’t yet responded to this claim however sources claiming to be Russian soldiers have chimed in. They say the plane was shot down but that the pilot had ejected.

    Video showing the wreckage of the Su-35 after being shot down.

    Claims have appeared online saying that a Dutch supplied F-16 using an AMRAAM was responsible for the downing.

    The crash is near Yurasovo village in the Kursk direction.

    F-16

  • Operation Spiderweb

    By. Scott Jackson

    06/02/2025

    On Sunday, we reported on a major covert drone attack carried out by Ukraine on Russian airbases across the country destroying a not insignificant percentage of Russia’s long range strategic bomber fleet. This attack stunned Moscow as well as western leaders who by all accounts weren’t made aware of the strike beforehand.

    ‘Operation Spiderweb’, the name given to the operation was carried out using semi trucks that were loaded up with a reported 117 drones total. The drones were used to target 4-5 different airbases spread all over Russia with the furthest being in Siberia.

    The trailers on the semi trucks were each disguised as sheds being hauled. When parked near their targets the roof was activated remotely and would slid off allowing the drones inside to be piloted remotely into their targets. Ukraine has done mass drone attacks before, often even but drones launched from Ukraine have to travel much further and are at a greater danger of being shot down by Russian Air Defense.

    Image released by Ukrainian security services shows the back of the trucks which were used as makeshift drone carriers.

    The drivers of the trucks were all Russian truck drivers contracted out by one (or several guys) using the name Artyom. They were contacted with delivery instructions and all had similar stories about getting to their drop off point and then the roof sliding off and drones started flying out. Russia is still investigating.

    Let’s go over each of the airbases and look at the numbers for Russian loses as best we can. These numbers are all based on satellite images received as well as open source information. Take the following breakdown for what it’s worth, an analysis done with less than an optimal amount of data.

    Before we jump in I’ll link to some videos one from the day of the attack and the other released today which has some more data we can use and is almost 5 minutes long.

    Here is the first.

    Video shows the first footage most were shown of Operation Spider Web.
    Belaya Airbase. Probably the hardest hit of the airbases.
    This video was released the day after the attack and shows strikes from all of the bases. A lot of the analysis I’m doing here will include things seen in this video.

    Olenya Air Base

    Olenya Air Base directly after the drone attack.

    On the Kola Peninsula, Air Base Olenya is an important part of Russia’s military operations. The bases aircraft are mostly made up with a collection of Sukhoi Su-24 and Tupolev Tu-95s.

    Most recent Google Earth Image from Olenya Air Base.
    Most recent imagery shows a line of TU-95
    This image is from Olenya but more recent than the Google earth inages.

    After Ukraine’s attack images look a bit different.

    The below shows the wider view in the aftermath of the attack .

    After looking at this data as well as the video clips of the attacks it’s believed that at least 4 Russian Tu-95 bombers were destroyed at Olenya air base along with one An-12 transport aircraft.

    Online sleuths have pointed out that in the video released after the attack you can see that at least one of the Tu-95’s had already been loaded with Kh-101 cruise missile. These bombers among others have been responsible for the recent missile wave attacks launched at Ukraine and her city’s. Some of the largest missile and drone attacks of the war have been carried out in the past 2 weeks.

    Alleged Russian cruise missile spotted during operation spiderweb.

    Ivanovo

    Ivanovo Severny Air base houses the 144th AEW&C regiment as well as rhe 610th Combat Use and Retraining Center for Military Transport Aviation.. The Ivanovo airbase houses a number of retired A-50 (and possibly active A-50’s) as well as transport aircraft like the Il-76. The video shows two A-50s being struck however I don’t know if these are the operational A-50s. Now we know Ukraine watched and planned this mission for a year and a half. I would like to think they wouldn’t waste the time attacking an airfield that holds nothing except some old parts planes. They had great Intel for this operation so it’s possible but I wanted to at least mention the uncertainty.

    Two images from a drone on the day of the strikes. These planes are covered in tires and other things used to break up line of sight for drones. Russia often uses tires for this purpose.

    Dyagilevo air base

    Of all the airbases. This is the one I have the least data for. I’ve yet to see satellite imagery from after the attack so I’ll just go by the video. It seems that a number of Tu-22s were targeted. At least 4 possibly more however I did notice that some of the planes shown in the video were struck multiple times. Will update this if I can get more info.

    Belaya

    Belaya air base in theUsolsky District, Irkutsk Oblast was hit pretty aggressively compared to the others.

    The base houses two types of Russias strategic bombers with the 200th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Brest Red Banner Order of Suvorov Regiment using Tu-22M3, the 444th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment with the Tu-22M3 and the 181st Independent Composite Aviation Squadron with the Antinov A-12 and A-30. Present at the base during the attack were also Tu-95s.

    This is the before shot of the airbase. Included fkr comparison with the after shot. This base has several decoy parking slots used to fool drones and satellites. That being said the paint for the decoys is very old so it’s fairly easy to spot. Sat images done by Planet labs.
    The shot after Operation Spiderweb. Sat images done by Planet labs.

    If my math is correct this airbase lost at least a solid 4 Tu-22’s, those are the ones that I can see, from the images, burned up and are completely destroyed. The video m of the attack shows multiple other Tu-22s that were targeted making me think that there is a good chance that some were damaged and need repaired or are not recoverable but we just can’t see it. So for now I’m sticking with 4 but it has an asterisk.

    I’m not counting this one, which is an obvious decoy. The fake wreckage might have fooled me but I’ve seen this base before. Pictures of this spot exist prior to the operation.

    The image with the decoy shows 2 of the 3 completely destroyed Tu-95’s. There is one more further down the runway which can be seen in the imagery and is shown to be struck in the video.

    Afterthoughts

    This attack will go down as one of Ukraines highlight moments in the war, showing a weakness in Russia’s current method of parking their airplanes.

    The line of B-52 Stratofortress at Anderson AFB.

    However. While my own country of the U.S. does have Hardened Aircraft Shelters, they are usually only found being used on the frontlines areas like the Middle East or in The Pacific. Protecting those w deployed assets is extremely important but it’s becoming increasingly glaring that some day, one of the US’s enemy’s could stage a similar attack, knocking out multiple squadrons of long range bombers before anybody even knows what’s happening. China on the other hand has been ahead of the game in this field building vast hundreds of these shelters for their air fleets. China who also happens to be in the forefront of drone warfare and combat tech. Could it be thag China sees a threat because they know the possibility’s of what rcan be accomplished with drones?

    The opening of a Hardened aircraft shelter located in South Korea. 
    I’d like to thank everybody who provided imagery for this, especially planet labs who allows me to be on their mailing list to receive these images when something big happens. That was a nice surprise after I started trying to find sat images to find them in my email. 

    -Scott

  • Poland/Russia relations worsen over Russian sabotage. Hybrid warfare.

    By. Scott Jackson

    05/29/2025

    Last year Warsaw’s largest shopping center, Marywilska 44, was burned down leading to a year long investigation that was only concluded earlier this month. That investigation, led to the arrest of several Polish nationals acting as Russian operatives and connected to the Russian state and the GRU, Russia’s secret police.

    “We already know for sure that the large fire on Marywilska was the result of arson ordered by Russian services. The actions were coordinated by a person staying in Russia. Some of the perpetrators are already in custody, the rest have been identified and are being sought,”

    Polish Prine Minister Donold Tusk writing on Twitter.

    This case of arson was one of several terrorist acts linked to Russia, all being carried out in the weeks leading up the Marywilska 44 fire. Arson is the focus of this article however attempted cyberattacks are another regular occurrence in countries that have shown support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. In early 2024 shipments of pillows, cosmetics and sex toys were filled with explosions being detonated in British Birmingham, Leipzig in Germany and in Warsaw, Poland. All of this is apart of an ongoing hybrid warfare campaign being waged by Russia on Poland (among others) as backlash for their support to Ukraine.

    Back to the shopping center Investigators in Poland are working with those in Lithuania for a similar series of sabotage activities believed to be linked to Russia according to a statement by Justice Minister Adam Bodnar and Interior Minister. Tomasz Siemoniak. Since some of the perpetrators in Poland had been arrested Polish authorities believe they have enough evidence to directly tie Russia to these crimes and Bodnar and Siemoniak continued in their statement: “Based on the evidence collected, we know that the fire was the result of arson committed at the request of the Russian security services. We have in-depth knowledge about the course of the arson, as well as the way in which the perpetrators documented it.”

    The immediate response to these attacks has been the closure of the Russian Consulate in Warsaw Poland however its still believed Russian operatives are carrying out other operations in Poland with several abductions being linked and a string of arson’s. Another consulate had been closed previously by Poland citing its link to a cyberattack, acts of sabotage, as well as other intelligence activities.

    This highlights Russia’s willingness and want to wage a sort of hybrid war, using terrorism and other more covert methods in an aim to punish those it views as hostile to Russia. In October of 2024 MI5 Director General Ken McCallum had this to say of the GRU was “…on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets”. A Romanian man was attested in 2024 in Birmingham after settling fire to a DHL warehouse on behalf of Russia.

    The Baltic nations have also had to deal with this extensively as Russian ships regularly attack underwater cables by dragging their anchors over them. Severing the lines. NATO warships often follow Russian linked ships now, even going so far as to have submarines tail these cargo ships.

    Actions like the one here have led to a wave of diplomatic closures as European/western countries,one by one, board up embassy’s and ban Russian diplomats from entry.

    Further reading-

    On this topic.

    https://jamestown.org/program/poland-responds-to-russian-sabotage-campaign-with-consulate-closure/

    On hybrid warfare in general.

    https://globalsecurityreview.com/hybrid-and-non-linear-warfare-systematically-erases-the-divide-between-war-peace/